月度归档 2024年2月1日

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The real estate broker war is just around the corner, and the C position of the shell is in danger？ ｜ Depth

Source: Wumian Finance
Author: Chen Xinmiao
Editor: Lei Zhizhi
Design: Budong
Editor’s Assistant: Zhu Zhiqi
The real estate brokerage market is surging.
Who would have expected that Ke Holdings Inc. (NYSE：BEKE, hereinafter referred to as "Shell"), which has been controversial all the way, could become the darling of capital. Since its listing in August 2020, its share price has been rising all the way, and its market value once reached 600 billion yuan. Today, its market value is still as high as 560.674 billion yuan (US$ 86.522 billion), killing a number of leading real estate enterprises such as "Bi Rong Wan Heng" and firmly taking the first place in the industry.
▲ Ke Holdings Inc. rings the bell, and the market performance is unexpectedly good. The picture comes from the internet.
At the beginning of the shell’s birth, it was impossible to sit still in the same city, but it seemed like another scene. In 2019, 21st Century Real Estate and Zhonghuan Internet have turned their backs on each other. By the end of 2020, World Bank announced in a paper that it had withdrawn from the new house joint sales platform 58 Aifang together with the same policy consultation. In the past, the "anti-shell alliance" was a mess.
58 series has fallen into the wind, but in the face of the fierce growth of shells, the Internet, developers and other capitals rushed into the "blue ocean" of the real estate trading market. Much attention has been paid to the online real estate trading platform "Tmall Good Room" launched by Yiju and Ali, with the intention of providing the industry with another choice besides shells; Evergrande acquired companies and stores on a large scale, and set up RV Bao Group to benchmark shells. The future journey is trillions of valuation, packaging and listing.
In the face of crisis and temptation, the forces of all parties are changing, and the smoke of war has already filled the air.
Shell alone according to c position"We are making a stadium, and more and more people want to play football here, and the rules are getting better and better." Zuo Hui once described shells with football. In his view, the nature of the industry is changing, and what shells do is to rebuild the ecology of the whole industry centered on store managers and brokers.
To a large extent, the shell’s confidence comes from the real estate dictionary and ACN (broker cooperation network) two methodologies. These are the two moats that the chain used to be, and now they have become the bottom rules for real estate brokerage brands to settle in shells.
Under the platform rules, the real estate transaction process is divided into multiple links, and brokers are encouraged to cooperate with each other, participate in different links and share the benefits; Brokerage brands on the platform can share all real listing information indiscriminately.
▲ Shell’s ACN network splits the real estate transaction process into multiple links, in which various roles play different roles. Image from late LatePost.
You know, before the shell, there were no rules in the extensive development of the real estate brokerage industry, and the shell was undoubtedly the one who ate crabs. Different from the ordinary internet platform, Shell tries to define the basic measures of house transaction in a closed-loop intercommunication mode, which strongly controls the rules of the platform, and intends to strengthen the information interaction of brokers and improve the transaction efficiency.
But the controversy of "being both an athlete and a referee" also comes from here, and shells need to prove themselves urgently. However, at present, the shell model has worked.
Switching from direct operation and franchise mode to platform mode, in just over two years, Shell has been attacking the city, and entered the capital market in August 2020, becoming the largest real estate transaction and service platform in China, with a GTV of 2.13 trillion yuan (the total transaction volume of the platform) second only to Alibaba in China.
After listing, the shell scale effect is still expanding. In the third quarter of 2020, the GTV (total trading volume of platforms) reached 1.05 trillion yuan, an increase of 87.2% year-on-year; The operating income was 20.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70.9%. In the first three quarters, the accumulated GTV and revenue of the shell platform have exceeded 2.13 trillion yuan and 46 billion yuan in 2019.
Looking at the industry, shells are also far ahead. Based on the national housing transaction volume, the market share of shells in 2019 was 9.5%, while the market share of mainstream brokerage companies represented by Zhongyuan Real Estate, I Love My Family and Leyoujia was only 4.3%, 1.9% and 1.3% respectively.
In addition to scale, cross-store brand cooperation and store efficiency are also data that Shell is willing to share with the outside world, which proves that its rules are effective.
From 2018 to the first half of 2020, the number of non-chain stores increased from 8,136 to 34,547, and the number of brokers increased from 60,900 to 321,800, which has achieved significant growth since the birth of the shell (April 2018). According to CIC report, in 2019, the single-store transaction volume of shell platform was 1.6 times that of the industry, and 70% of the stock house transactions came from cross-store transactions.
During this period, real estate brokerage brands such as 21st Century Real Estate, Central Real Estate and Dwelling House settled in Shell. In addition, after the restart of the franchise brand Deyou, it is also attracting small and medium-sized intermediary brands from all over the world.
Taking the Wuhan market as an example, according to the "Prism" news, Xie Juan, the chairman of Wuhan Fangrong Company, said that in early 2019, the company’s three major brands had more than 600 stores, and under the strong attack of Shell, nearly 200 stores were lost in September.
However, the shell that occupies the super C position in the industry is facing the torture of whether it will become an industry monopolist.
For example, in September 2019, representatives of 100 real estate agencies in Jinhua, Zhejiang Province jointly signed the Anti-Shell Alliance Treaty, and 530 stores in the alliance shouted "Oppose monopoly and resist unhealthy competition"; In April 2020, 100 intermediary companies in Yancheng, Jiangsu Province also rebelled against the shellfish system on the grounds of "resisting bad competition".
58 alliance collapseCompared with the highlights of shells, the "anti-shell alliance" initiated by 58 cities in the past is now an exit, and the momentum of defection is not as good as before.
The real estate information platform under the same city is an important source of revenue. But the shell moving from offline to online undoubtedly moved its cheese.
To this end, in June 2018, 58 cities launched a real estate alliance, wooing brokerage brands such as I love my family, Zhongyuan Real Estate, 21st Century Real Estate China, and Zhonghuan Internet, shouting "58 will never be self-employed" and pointing to shells; Ten days later, 58 City became a strategic shareholder, I love my family, and the curve cut into the real estate agency industry.
▲ The swearing-in meeting on the platform of Yao Jinbo Zhang Luo and Zhongzhong Brokerage Company pointed out that the opponent was naturally the shell that was not present. The picture comes from the internet.
However, the "anti-shell alliance" is not solid, but more like a rush to hold a group when facing the unknown new thing of shells. Less than a year after the alliance, the real estate in the 21 ST century will "surrender" to the shell; In the same year, Central Internet and I love my family, but they failed to reorganize, and turned to cooperate with Shell.
Nearly 9,000 stores under the two brand brokerage companies have entered the shell, which is undoubtedly a heavy blow to 58 cities. According to media reports, since 2019, in order to prevent more intermediary companies from accessing the shell system, 58 cities have spared no effort to ban "shell takers", and the "two-choice-one" dispute has intensified in the intermediary industry.
In 2020, the number of allies in 58 cities will continue to decrease. Prior to this, in 2019, 58 cities, World Bank and Tongce Consulting jointly established the new house joint selling platform 58 Aifang, with the intention of grabbing the new house distribution market with platforms such as Shell and Yiju. However, by the end of the year, World Bank and Tongce Consulting both withdrew and transferred 55% of their shares in 58 Aifang to 58 cities.
Behind the "breakup" is the continuous loss of 58 love houses. According to the announcement of World Bank, the competition in the field of new house joint selling platform is fierce, and it is still in the early stage of investment and loss. In 2019, Shanghai Geng Ying Net (the operating entity of 58 Aifang) lost 95.74 million yuan; From January to September 2020, the net loss further expanded to 172 million yuan.
Jiang Han, a senior researcher at Pangu think tank, believes that there is no way to evacuate Tongce and World Bank. For the whole market, 58 Aifang has not formed its own hematopoietic mechanism and relatively strong market competitiveness. The final result is that the participants have not gained their sense of belonging and hope for market development.
Not only that, I was particularly active in the process of shelling shells. I publicly stated that "the platform that is both online and offline is not acceptable to us in business ethics and operational logic". I love my family and was reduced by 58 cities in August last year. After the reduction, the shareholding ratio of 58 cities will be reduced to 4.99%.
Although the gambling was successfully completed, I love my family’s scale expansion in recent years, and the scale of channels and houses is far less than that of shells. There are tens of thousands of stores and trillions of transactions with Shell, and I love my family. These two indicators are still in the stage of hundreds of billions.
Teammates defected, the alliance split, and allies didn’t give strength. So it seems that 58 cities have already fallen behind in this platform dispute provoked by themselves.
However, 58 cities are still sticking to their teeth. Its CEO Yao Jinbo once publicly compared Apple and Android phones to Shell and 58. "It is hard to say that Apple phones are open platforms, but Android phones are open platforms and can be produced by many people."
On the occasion of the listing of shells last year, Yao Jinbo, CEO of 58 City, wrote in a circle of friends: "Today, shells are listed, and congratulations are extended to General Manager Zuo Hui. But responsibly speaking, we believe that the open platform Android will be greater than closed, and 58 Anjuke will enter/empower the industry in all directions after delisting! "
In addition, 58 love houses has become a channel for 58 cities to compete for intermediary resources. According to Tianyancha data, 58 Aifang actually controls 193 companies, most of which are local intermediary brands, including Chongqing Home, Guangxi Youju, Changsha Seagull, Wuhan Nuojia and Anhui Zhongshu Real Estate.
The giant is a powerful spoiler.In the face of crisis and temptation, housing enterprises and Internet tycoons can’t sit still.
It is hard to imagine that the shell from the hard work of the intermediary can create a market value of over 500 billion yuan, which is undoubtedly a huge impact on the high-ranking housing enterprises in the past. When most housing enterprises are facing channelization, shell’s right to speak is also increasing. According to the third quarterly report of 2020, the transaction volume of shell new houses increased by 105% year-on-year to 420.7 billion yuan, and the revenue of new houses has surpassed that of second-hand houses.
Evergrande took the lead in rushing out of a group of real estate enterprises, launched RV treasures and benchmarked shells, with the ultimate goal of listing.
At the end of December last year, Xu Jiayin officially unveiled RV Bao Group, and announced its three major departments: RV Bao National Brokerage Platform, RV Bao Platform and RV Bao SaaS Management Platform, covering transactions of new houses, second-hand houses, new cars and used cars, as well as home improvement and car user services.
The growth of RV Bao began with a large-scale collection of intermediaries, and the path was huge subsidies. "I give you money and you give me traffic resources; I don’t want your money, but you have to obey the management and we will go public together, "RV Bao wrote in the cooperation mechanism.
The speed soon appeared. According to the data of Evergrande, RV Bao Group was reorganized and established by Evergrande and 152 intermediaries in the second half of 2020. At present, there are 30,635 offline stores with an annual transaction scale of 1.2 trillion yuan. In contrast, the corresponding data of shells are 42,000 and 2.1 trillion.
According to the blueprint drawn by Evergrande, the valuation of RV Bao will reach 6 trillion yuan in 2023 and it will be listed in 2024. And RV Bao now values itself at 67.7 billion yuan.
At present, most of the RV treasures are Evergrande’s houses, and it is not known whether it can become an open platform in the future. However, the market space left for RV Bao is still very large.
According to CIC report, the total amount of real estate transactions in China will reach 30.7 trillion yuan in 2024, and the compound growth rate from 2019 to 2024 will reach 6.6%. Although shells are strong, their market share is less than a quarter at present.
This point has also been taken seriously by Internet giants such as Alibaba, JD.COM and ByteDance.
Shortly after the shell went on the market, Ali joined hands with E-House to launch "Tmall Good House" and launched the real estate transaction cooperation mechanism (ETC), providing four trading scenarios: new house, second-hand house, special room and auction room, with more than 60 real estate enterprises such as Vanke, Country Garden and Evergrande as their platforms.
According to the plan, Tmall Haofang will not make money for at least the next three years, and all income will be 100% subsidized by buyers.
Zhou Xin, chairman of Yiju, believes that the traditional brokerage industry is fragmented, and the appearance of shells provides the first choice for the industry, while Tmall Haofang provides another choice for institutions and brokers who are unwilling to be bound by too many rules. "I don’t think there is right or wrong, it’s just a matter of choice."
But then the war started. Last year’s Double Eleven, Tmall Good Rooms and Shells concentrated on the promotion of new houses. From the open battle report, Tmall Haofang entered 236 cities through cooperation with 302 developers, with a GTV of over 93.1 billion yuan. In contrast, Ke Holdings Inc. only claims to cooperate with 90% of the top 100 housing enterprises, with a GTV of less than 36.8 billion yuan.
In addition to Ali, JD.COM is also making efforts. During the Double Eleven last year, it opened more than 800 "Haofang Jingxuan" stores in Guangzhou, Dongguan, Huizhou and Tianjin.
Hu Jinghui, chief economist of Jinghui think tank, believes that compared with the loose defensive alliance form before, all the new entrants have the support of big capital, and with the influx of various forces, one or two forces that can really fight against shells may be formed in the future.
In the process of competition among all parties, scattered small and medium-sized brokerage companies are more likely to become the target of poaching. According to the data of Qianwei.com, 70% of small and micro intermediaries have completed more than 50% of the transaction volume in the second-hand housing market.
Ping An Securities pointed out in its research report that under the demands of the head office to scale up and expand channels, the expansion speed of the heavy asset direct sales model is limited, and the light asset platform joining model has become an important means of scale growth, and the competition for resources of small and medium-sized stores in the region is becoming increasingly fierce, driving the industry concentration to accelerate, showing a situation of strong and strong.
Reporting/feedback

The man died of heatstroke with a body temperature of 42℃. The doctor told you not to ＂carry hard＂ in sauna days, and be alert if you suddenly ＂have no sweat＂ after sweating.

Shencheng entered the "roasting" mode.

The hottest day of the year has come! In the past two days, most parts of the country were scorched by the scorching sun. In Shanghai, the temperature also went up all the way, from 33℃, 35℃ and all the way to 38℃, and the outdoor high-temperature barbecue mode was started. With the continuous high-temperature weather, the incidence of heatstroke also increased. Recently, a middle-aged man in Huizhou, Guangdong Province suffered from heatstroke and his body temperature approached 42℃, and he died after being rescued. In this regard, the doctor once again reminded:In high temperature environment, if you have sweating, thirst, chest tightness, dizziness, nausea, limb weakness and numbness, you must pay attention to it. You may have heatstroke, so don’t "carry it hard".

After sleeping, the topic of heatstroke has become one of the most concerned topics of the public, which is not only uncomfortable, but also may have fatal consequences. Recently, "the man died of heatstroke at a temperature of 42℃" directly boarded the hot search.

"The air humidity increases after falling into the air, coupled with continuous high temperature, which is very prone to heatstroke." Zhou Yong, chief physician of the Department of Internal Medicine of Shanghai Renai Hospital, explained that heatstroke is an acute disease with disorder of body temperature regulation, water electrolysis metabolism and dysfunction of nervous system and circulatory system in an environment with high temperature and high fever and no air circulation. Heatstroke is mainly related to high temperature, direct sunlight, high labor intensity, poor air circulation and other factors. In addition, weak personal constitution, poor nutritional status, excessive fatigue, lack of sleep and obesity are also factors that induce heatstroke.

How to judge whether it is heatstroke? Heatstroke can be divided into premonitory heatstroke, mild heatstroke and severe heatstroke. After heatstroke, there will be a series of disease symptoms from light to heavy. Among them, severe heatstroke can be divided into three types: heat spasm, heat exhaustion and heatstroke.Heat stroke is a particularly serious disease. The patient’s body temperature can be as high as 40℃, and he sweats a lot in the early stage, and then "no sweat", accompanied by different degrees of consciousness disorder, and some may even lead to shock, which can seriously cause coma, liver and kidney failure, and even multiple organ failure. The condition deteriorates rapidly and the mortality rate is extremely high.

So, what should I do if I get heatstroke? Dr. Zhou Yong suggested that,Once you feel heatstroke, you should stop your activities immediately, move to a cool and ventilated place, turn on the electric fan or air conditioner, take off your excess clothes and let your body dissipate heat quickly.; People around you can use cold water or alcohol to help patients wipe their bodies, or use wet towels and cold patches to cool them down.

During this period, patients can take summer medicine, drink more light salt water and mung bean soup to replenish lost body fluids, and closely observe the patient’s situation. If the patient is unconscious, or the symptoms are difficult to relieve or disappear, it may be severe heatstroke. At the same time as taking treatment measures, dial "120" in time to send the patient to the hospital for treatment.

How to prevent heatstroke in hot weather? Since the high temperature can’t be avoided, you should take precautions at ordinary times. Dr. Zhou Yong suggested:When the weather is hot, whether you are thirsty or not, you should drink more water, especially when you sweat a lot, you must replenish water in time; Usually eat more vegetables and fruits with high water content and keep enough sleep;Avoid going out at high temperature. If you can’t avoid it, you should prepare sunscreen and sunscreen, and prepare some medicines for heatstroke prevention and cooling.

Talking about how special people spend the midsummer safely, Director Song He of Shanghai Yuanda Cardiothoracic Hospital found that,Many patients with cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases have a misunderstanding. They always think that the blood pressure is the lowest in summer and the symptoms are relatively stable, so they stop taking drugs or change their own medicines without authorization. Actually, it is not. High temperature weather is also a high incidence of cardiovascular diseases, especially when the weather continues to be sultry, human metabolism and blood circulation are obviously accelerated, subcutaneous blood vessels are dilated, blood flow is increased by 3-5 times than usual, and the burden on the heart is aggravated.Secondly, the high temperature in summer makes people sweat a lot, and the body’s water evaporates with sweat in large quantities, causing blood viscosity, which is easy to lead to cardiovascular and cerebrovascular ischemia and even embolism.

In addition, hot weather makes people prone to emotional "heatstroke", irritability and irritability, coupled with factors such as long days and short nights and "discounted sleep quality".Patients are prone to angina pectoris, arrhythmia, cerebral infarction, myocardial infarction, and even sudden death.

Therefore, high temperature weather will also bring challenges to patients with cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. Director Song He reminded us to replenish more water and have a light and balanced diet in the dog days. Patients with chronic diseases such as hypertension, heart disease and diabetes should have regular outpatient check-ups, take medicine strictly according to the doctor’s advice, and do not stop taking medicine without authorization. Cardiovascular patients should avoid overwork and spicy diet, and eat more fresh fruits and vegetables. You should avoid activities at high temperature, pay attention to drinking a glass of water in the morning, reduce blood viscosity, keep proper exercise, and avoid great joy, great sorrow and great anger.

　　Author: Tang Wenjia

　　Editor: Wu Jinjiao

Editor in charge: Fan Liping

* The exclusive manuscript of Wenhui, please indicate the source.

Used cars usher in a big market (new economic orientation)

　　Not long ago, Mr. Jin, who works in a chemical company in Yangzhou, successfully completed the registration procedures for the transfer of used cars. "I found a joint venture brand car with Qingdao license in 2015 on the second-hand car trading platform, and the hand price was 33,500 yuan." Mr. Jin said that in Jiangsu, from June 17, foreign used cars that meet the national five emission standards can move in normally.

　　Mr. Jin is just one of the many beneficiaries of the favorable policy for used cars. On June 22, the executive meeting of the State Council decided that the restrictions on the moving-in of small non-operating used cars will be completely lifted from August 1, and the automobile sales enterprises will implement separate endorsement management and issue temporary license plates when applying for transfer registration from October 1. Luo Lei, Deputy Secretary-General of china automobile dealers association, said that favorable policies will further enliven the used car market, promote the renewal of automobile consumption and release the consumption potential.

　　Favorable policies help the market to accelerate development.

　　"The circulation of used cars is actually convenient and smooth." Chen Ji, general manager of Suzhou Lexuan UCAR, told the reporter that the company has collected more than 10 used cars with foreign licenses after Jiangsu province lifted the relocation restriction in mid-June. "The cancellation of the relocation restriction not only allows more foreign car sources to enter Suzhou, but also the second-hand cars with the national five emission standards that cannot be digested locally can be sold to various places more conveniently." Chen Ji said.

　　Wang Xiaoyu, co-founder of Guazi used car, believes that the cancellation of the relocation restriction policy has opened up the blocking points and card points in the circulation of used cars, which will activate the trading of used cars in different places and drive the continuous growth of the trade scale. "Since June 1, Hebei, Jiangsu, Tianjin, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other places have successively implemented the policy of canceling the national five emission standards for second-hand cars. The range of optional car sources for users in these places has expanded by about 6 times, and the proportion of off-site car sources on the platform has also increased from the previous 35% to 80%, which has driven the growth of platform car dealers’ sales." Wang Xiaoyu said.

　　"The policy of separate endorsement management and issuance of temporary number plates for second-hand car transfer registration implemented nationwide since October 1 is a big plus for second-hand car circulation enterprises in cities with limited purchases." Guo Jian, general manager of the famous car in Beijing No.1 Station, said, "In the past, in order to transfer and register used cars in Beijing, it was necessary to occupy the index of car purchase, and circulation enterprises could only rent number plates. After Beijing promoted the temporary license plate policy in advance, it reduced the company’s operating expenses, and the acquired used cars entered the company’s name, which can be treated as ‘ Inventory goods ’ Accounting has also opened the door to social financing. "

　　Feeling the huge development potential of the used car market, SAIC-GM launched a brand-new "Buick officially certified used car" brand last year. "Since 2020, especially since the first half of this year, a series of policies and measures to encourage the development of the used car market have been intensively introduced." Yao Fu, head of the marketing department of SAIC-GM Buick, said that the favorable policies cover all aspects such as encouraging to speed up the elimination and renewal of old vehicles, completely canceling the relocation restriction policy, and lowering the value-added tax rate of used cars. Combined with the implementation of the new policy, the company will open up the new and used car business chain through active car source repurchase, realize the three-dimensional sales model of national circulation, and gradually plan a standardized service system equivalent to the new car type to enhance the service experience of used car owners.

　　Branding and digitalization to enhance the transparency of transaction information

　　At the beginning of July, Mr. Ju, the owner of a restaurant in Shanghai, bought a Buick Angkewei in 2019 through the "Buick Official Certified Used Car". "I bought a new car with a car age of 3 years in the early 100,000 yuan, and I have been driving for more than 20 days. It feels really good." Mr. Ju said that he considered a new car, ran through the used car market, brokerage companies, and saw the online platform, and finally chose an officially certified used car.

　　"Quality and service are the two core competitiveness of used car distribution enterprises, and they are also an important way to build consumer trust and enhance consumer experience." Luo Lei believes that the official certification of used cars by car companies is guaranteed by high-quality first-hand car sources, standardized testing and evaluation processes, original factory warranty, after-sales service, etc., plus the endorsement of car brands, which solves the pain point of information asymmetry of consumers buying used cars.

　　In recent years, the booming second-hand car e-commerce platform has also contributed new solutions to improve the transparency of second-hand car trading information.

　　"Entering the platform and empowering the platform digitally is an effective way for traditional used car circulation enterprises to enhance their competitiveness." Chen Ji said that platform enterprises can carry out digital and standardized management of used cars in different ways. Consumers can see at a glance whether the vehicles have collided, to what extent, and which side has been painted, which is what most used car circulation enterprises cannot do. In addition, remote delivery, door-to-door delivery, seven-day unreasonable return, etc. are inseparable from the platform enterprises’ strong logistics system, financial support and remote after-sales maintenance.

　　"Digital means allow enterprises to reach potential customers nationwide." Wang Yong, general manager of Nanjing Qihang Famous Car, said that today, they have sold local car sources to more than 20 cities outside Nanjing, and the turnover efficiency of car sales has increased by three times.

　　Take precautions and standardize the development of new energy used car market

　　"In Shanghai, buying new energy used cars is not restricted by licenses, but I gave up after thinking about it again and again." Mr. Ju said that consumers have no way to verify the data related to safety and directly affecting the charging and driving performance of vehicles, such as the number of times of vehicle charging and discharging, the degree of battery attenuation, and whether the batteries are overheated and out of control.

　　"Since last year, China’s new energy vehicles have continued to double, and the annual sales volume this year is expected to exceed 5.5 million. How to standardize the development of the new energy used car market has become a problem that the industry must seriously face. " Luo Lei said that last year, the Technical Specification for Appraisal and Evaluation of Second-hand Pure Electric Passenger Cars, which was researched and compiled by china automobile dealers association for three years, was released, providing a set of scientific and practical appraisal and evaluation standards for second-hand cars suitable for new energy vehicles for the domestic market.

　　"Since the second half of last year, the market price of pure electric used cars factory in 2017 has almost doubled. This not only shows that the market’s recognition of new energy used cars has greatly increased, but also means that the previously underestimated hedge ratio is returning rationally. " For example, Shen Wenjun, the founder of Beijing Che Yi De New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., said that the EV150 of Beiqi New Energy, which has a driving range of about 100 kilometers and is six years old, sold for about 10,000 yuan last year, and now it is close to 20,000 yuan.

　　The second-hand car industry of new energy not only undertakes the replacement of new cars in the upstream, promotes the sustainable development of the new energy vehicle market, but also connects the cascade utilization and recycling of waste power batteries in the downstream, which is an important link in the whole life cycle management of new energy vehicles. Although the current appraisal and evaluation standards, new testing equipment, etc. have made quality identification no longer a problem, in Shen Wenjun’s view, the sustainable development of the industry is still facing challenges without a breakthrough in traceability management of power batteries.

　　All new energy vehicles are equipped with power battery monitoring system, which can monitor and upload key data in use, and even notify the owner in advance before the battery thermal runaway occurs, but this information cannot be shared. "We have been discussing whether to install a set of similar equipment on the used car for sale and record the operation data of the vehicle’s three electric systems." Shen Wenjun said that this move not only improves the safety of vehicles and user stickiness, but also contributes to the later cascade utilization and recycling.

　　"The standardized start of the new energy used car market is conducive to the healthy development of the entire used car market." Luo Lei introduced that in 2019, China’s used car trading volume exceeded half of new car sales, and in 2021 it reached 2/3 of new car sales. "With the obvious effect of the policy, in 2025, the transaction volume of used cars will be expected to be the same as that of new cars." Luo Lei said.

In winter, let’s gradually mature.

Original title: Winter, let us slowly mature.

In winter, let’s gradually mature.

Author: Qingxi

When I said goodbye to autumn, I held a cup of warm tea in my hand, counting the little rays of sunlight leaking from the leaves … When I was leaving in winter, I gave my thoughts to the snow, hoping that the swirling snowflakes would cover the whole autumn world … In this way, autumn became a story and winter became a landscape.

"Cold" is a key word that cannot be avoided in winter. Perhaps, the meaning of cold is to remind us of some warm things! ——

When I was a child, in winter, I could see roasted sweet potatoes everywhere in the streets. An iron barrel with charcoal burning inside, and hot sweet potatoes roasting on the top of the iron barrel, the street is full of sweet smell … At that time, I always liked to buy a sweet potato that was neither too big nor too small to hold in my hand. Hands, warm; When eaten in the mouth, it is fragrant and sweet; Heart, warm …

When I was a child, popcorn was not like popping a bunch of popcorn at once in front of kindergartens and cinemas. Instead, I needed to find the popcorn with corn kernels and saccharin myself-put the corn and saccharin in a magical container, and then turn around and turn around. When the pressure arrives, the popcorn man will shout, "Open the pot!" " Then, boom, a big pot of popcorn comes out. Although I get a fright every time, I also enjoy it …

Ice window grilles have carried my childhood longings and dreams-there is enlightenment, which often inspires the truth of life and the light of loving nature; There is inspiration, short-lived dreamlike reverie and short-lived dream realization, which edifies my sentiment of fearing nature; ….. The life of ice window grilles is only so short from dawn to sunrise, but it leaves a beautiful picture on earth. It dedicates a colorful and perfect painting world with monotonous colors; It’s a world painted with a crystal thin posture, which is worth my time-consuming standing stupidly …

Although there will be cold wind, freezing rain and snow in winter, as long as there is love in my heart, my heart will not be cold. Life is not easy, you should know how to please yourself and look for some fun with your heart; Heaven and earth are dead, as long as you calm down, there are many touches in ordinary winter-

Look at the tassels of reeds. The white catkins are glittering and translucent by the sunshine of one meter, and they are lingering. The heads of the reeds that have been completely yellow are covered with clusters of silver-gray reeds. Time has brought the life of every reed to the final limit, showing a soft shape ―― fluffy, fluffy, as light as cicada’s wings, fluttering with the wind … After this winter, the reed will be reborn! The recurring laws of nature make us feel the time and life in loneliness and bleakness.

In the bleak, clusters of honeysuckle fruits hanging on the branches are very eye-catching. Honeysuckle, what a strong and poetic name. In winter, it has lost its pink and tender flowers and changed into a more red and colder posture, telling the beauty of life. Winter is irresistible, but if you can "endure", you will have glory and hope.

The sky is quiet and distant, the ground is cold and empty, and there will be pieces of residual leaves falling with the wind on the bare trees. Among the branches of the tree, there are bird’s nests quietly facing the wind. They are held high by the tree, just like a overlooking eye. Their eyes are full of loneliness and coldness, as well as the hope for spring …

Winter is a black-and-white sketch. The lines are simple, but they contain profound meaning of life. Winter is like an elegant classical music, quietly telling; Winter is like a little sunshine on the lake, and it is like a note hanging on the branches. In the quiet flow, the silence and purity of the bottom of my heart are precipitated …

Yes, the feeling that winter gives people always has different connotations because of different moods and different things. When the cold and bleak winter is always beautiful, and our soft hearts are finely covered with warm colors, we will also open all our moods outside our dreams …

The power of winter is everywhere, especially winter, which fills the shortcomings of the three seasons of life and keeps the four seasons charming forever! Silent in winter, like a philosopher. In winter, let’s gradually mature.

Brief introduction of the author

Tian Xiangru, pen name,clear stream, member of Tianjin Writers Association.

In my spare time, I write some words and leave every bit of my daily life in the memory space. I don’t want to ask for anything, I just want to fly my mood in the free sky … I like dancing with my fingertips, recording the joys and sorrows in my life, feeling my life with my heart, talking with my soul, and letting the space convey my true feelings and thoughts …

primary work

Editor in charge:

Employment, house purchase, stock trading … Ten predictions for the second half of this year’s economy are closely related to you.

　　Editor of Economic Daily-China Economic Net: In 2020, the second half of China’s economy has begun, and the next performance has attracted much attention. Can the employment target be achieved in the second half of this year? What will be the trend of the property market? Will retaliatory consumption appear? … … For these economic hot issues that the society cares about, the Financial Research Center of Bank of Communications released "Born Inward — — Macroeconomic and financial outlook for the second half of 2020 was analyzed and predicted.

　　Employment: The annual target of 9 million yuan can be achieved.

　　According to the report, with the obvious acceleration of the resumption of work and production and the targeted support of policies, it is still relatively certain to achieve the goal of 9 million new jobs set by the government throughout the year. First, focus on supporting the employment of key groups and ensuring new jobs. The second is to focus on supporting small and micro enterprises to reduce unemployment. The third is to develop emerging industries and promote flexible employment. Fourth, strengthen training, expand the number of recruits, ease employment pressure and improve the quality of the labor force.

　　GDP: The economy can achieve positive growth throughout the year.

　　As for the GDP growth rate, the report predicts that the economic growth rate in the second half of the year will be significantly faster than that in the first half of the year. The development of the global epidemic and the recovery of external demand will have an impact on China’s economic operation. Under the benchmark scenario, the economic growth in the third quarter recovered to about 6%, and the annual economic growth rate was about 2.5%. Under the pessimistic scenario, the global demand has been significantly weakened by the repeated epidemic, and the economic growth rate in the third and fourth quarters is still low, with the annual economic growth of about 1%; Under the optimistic scenario, the global epidemic quickly disappeared, the external demand resumed and the domestic active policies were effective, and the economic growth rate rebounded significantly in the third and fourth quarters, with an annual economic growth of about 3.5%.

　　Consumption: there will be no retaliatory consumption, and a moderate recovery can be expected.

　　Will retaliatory consumption appear in the second half of the year? The report doesn’t think it will appear. First, the epidemic has brought a serious impact on outdoor consumption, second, the epidemic has brought an impact on employment, and third, China’s rescue policy has little support for families and individual residents. As the epidemic subsides and production and life return to normal, the recovery of consumption in the second half of the year can be expected, and the consumption varieties may be divided: the consumption of anti-virus products such as medicine, disinfectant and toiletries increases rapidly; Necessary consumer goods, such as daily necessities and electronic products, which are less affected by the epidemic have recovered quickly; Consumption related to real estate and automobile industry chain has gradually improved; The recovery of service consumption may be slow.

　　Investment: Focus on "New Infrastructure"

　　The report predicts that the annual infrastructure investment will increase by 8%. Fiscal and monetary policies focus on targeted support, and infrastructure investment focuses on "new infrastructure". Traditional infrastructure investment will also accelerate, but the intensity may be limited. The downward trend of market interest rate and the decline of financing cost of housing enterprises may support the gradual acceleration of real estate development investment. As the lack of speculation in housing indicates that the real estate control policy will not be relaxed, it will restrict the growth rate of real estate development investment, which is expected to increase by 5% throughout the year. The investment in high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing has a good growth momentum, but the weakening of external demand has a great impact on export-oriented manufacturing. The investment prospects of traditional manufacturing industries are not good, and the operating pressure of enterprises is increasing and profits are narrowing, which will seriously affect the investment expectations of manufacturing industries. The negative growth trend of manufacturing investment may remain for some time, and it is expected to increase by -4% for the whole year. It is estimated that the annual investment will increase by about 3.1%.

　　Bond market: short-term fluctuations do not affect the medium-term trend.

　　The report pointed out that the fluctuation of short-term bond market is mainly disturbed by factors such as the marginal slowdown of monetary policy easing. From the medium-term logic point of view: the current marginal slowdown of monetary policy operation is not a monetary policy shift, and the recovery of the real economy has just begun and the long-term growth pressure is still great. The withdrawal of policy strength from the emergency mode during the anti-epidemic period is a short-term disturbance. In the second half of the year, under the control of the central bank’s "moderate money+wide credit", the money market interest rate SHIBOR and other probabilities are still "fluctuating" at the bottom. Although the bond market yield is difficult to show a sharp trend, the overall sharp rebound in the second half of the year does not have the driving foundation of liquidity fundamentals.

　　Stock market: maintaining range volatility and grasping structural opportunities

　　The report believes that fundamental recovery, low valuation, sustained net inflow of foreign capital, possible acceleration of credit cycle expansion and a series of reform measures in the equity market are all positive factors in the current domestic equity market. However, considering more uncertainties overseas, the stock market will still maintain a range fluctuation pattern during the year, and the bottom point should not fall below again during the year. However, considering the adaptation to the basic situation, there are some difficulties in continuing to attack, and we should remain cautiously optimistic. From the perspective of investment opportunities, we can still focus on new infrastructure areas such as science and technology supported by policies, and leading enterprises in industries such as essential consumer goods related to domestic demand and medicines related to making up shortcomings. The registration system continues to advance, and it is expected that the market profit will be concentrated in the head enterprises in the future, and the trend of "the strong will be strong" will continue.

　　Exchange rate: Sino-US relations dominate the exchange rate trend, and two-way fluctuations may become the norm.

　　Since 2018, due to political factors such as trade friction, the RMB exchange rate has deviated from fundamental factors. The report predicts that the US dollar may weaken slightly in the second half of the year, while the spread between China and the United States will remain high. Under the background of loose global liquidity and ultra-low interest rates, RMB assets are expected to continue to attract foreign capital inflows, and the RMB exchange rate may rebound slightly to around 7. However, in the second half of the year, the global epidemic situation is still uncertain, the market sentiment is still fragile, and American politicians may still make an issue of China during the election, so the RMB exchange rate fluctuates greatly. It is expected that the RMB exchange rate may fluctuate in the range of [6.9,7.2].

　　Property market: There is great pressure on housing prices in these places.

　　For the property market in the second half of the year, the report predicts that the transaction trend may change in two stages: the first stage is the short-term repair and replenishment of sales volume, and the regulation policy of tightening outside and loosening inside and the liquidity dividend of rising water are two catalysts to promote the release of demand; The second stage is to return to the original downward cycle. If the policy orientation does not change, short-term gap repair will not be enough to constitute a cyclical upswing. The regional performance is even more different: the "resident demand" in first-and second-tier cities is easy to release, and the pressure of rising house prices in low-inventory areas such as Shenzhen and Hangzhou is high; It is difficult to maintain the "demand for migratory birds" in third-and fourth-tier cities, and the old reform effect cannot completely replace the shed reform. Thanks to the friendly monetary environment, the pressure on the capital cost of housing enterprises has obviously eased.

　　Crude oil: oversupply eased, and oil prices may fluctuate upward.

　　In terms of crude oil, the report believes that China leads the recovery of global crude oil demand, and the "OPEC+"production reduction agreement has begun to take effect, which has jointly eased the pressure of oversupply in the market. However, the upward pace of oil prices will slow down after experiencing a significant rebound. First, although the demand for crude oil is improving, it still faces uncertainty. Second, the production reduction action started at the end of 2016 also proves that under the background of the rising of non-OPEC+oil producers such as the United States, multi-party games run through the production reduction agreement, and the "OPEC+"production reduction action alone is not enough to fundamentally change the situation of oversupply. Third, the high inventory of crude oil still needs to be digested. In the second half of the year, the oil price will fluctuate upwards, and the Brent oil price center may be 40-55 USD/barrel.

　　Gold: the allocation value is prominent, and the upward momentum of gold price is sufficient.

　　Affected by the epidemic, the financial market has been in great turmoil this year, while the gold market has a unique scenery. Looking forward to the market outlook, based on the safe-haven function and value-preserving function of gold, the report predicts that the price of gold still has sufficient upward momentum, or mainly fluctuates higher. First of all, the fear of a new round of pneumonia has stimulated investors’ safe-haven demand for gold assets. Secondly, in the global monetary easing policy and low interest rate environment, the expectation of inflation and currency depreciation has increased, triggering the demand for gold preservation. Finally, in the coming period, uncertainties from the United States and the dollar will also support the rise of gold prices.

　　The report was completed by Cai Puhua, Zhou Kunping, Tang Jianwei, Liu Jian, Chen Ji, Liu Xuezhi, Hu Yanan, Xia Dan and Jian Wu from the Financial Research Center of Bank of Communications. (Economic Daily-China Economic Net reporter Ma Changyan)

Zhu Huarong is extremely concerned about the research and development of the automobile industry chain and customer service.

It is quite surprising that Zhu Huarong is the chairman of a listed company with more than 70,000 employees and nearly 20 million car owners.
Of course, if you know that Zhu Huarong is still a big car V with 590,000 fans, and his personal social platform can be called another service hotline of Changan Automobile, everything will be answered.
As the most influential and energetic "Big V" in China’s automobile industry, Zhu Huarong receives a large number of messages from Changan automobile users every day. With this platform, Changan automobile owners can communicate directly with the top management of the enterprise.
This car company with a technical background is at the helm, and he is extremely concerned about both ends of the automobile industry chain (R&D and customer service).
He is an "old Chang ‘an" rooted in Chongqing. From the 1980s, Zhu Huarong served as the first director of the automobile development room of Jiangling Machinery Factory, and later served as the technical director of Changan Automobile, the chief engineer of the automobile factory, the president of the automobile engineering research institute, and then the president and chairman of Changan Automobile. He was one of the important founders of Changan’s R&D system and a witness and promoter of autonomous passenger cars from scratch.
In 2003, Changan started its second venture to enter the passenger car market, and it took ten years to become the brand leader of China automobile.
At that time, Chang ‘an executives had been keenly aware that under the impact of global electrification, the automobile industry might undergo subversive changes. The traditional model will no longer be effective, and the ecosystem around electric vehicles and smart interconnection will become a new course.
In October 2017, Zhu Huarong, then president of Changan Automobile, delivered a speech with the theme of "Deepening Reform, Starting a Third Business" at the fourth quarter meeting of middle-level cadres of Changan Automobile, which initiated the comprehensive reform and adjustment of Changan Automobile and began to transform from a traditional automobile manufacturing enterprise to an intelligent travel technology company.
After three years of pain and transition, Chang ‘an’s innovation and entrepreneurship gradually landed and got feedback.
In 2023, the sales volume of Changan Automobile Group exceeded 2.553 million vehicles, including the rapid expansion of new energy and overseas markets, the continuous doubling of new energy in three years, with a year-on-year increase of 69.2%, and the sales volume of overseas markets reached 358,000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 43.9%. In terms of revenue, in 2023, the company achieved an operating income of 242.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, and a year-on-year increase of 369.6% in cash flow. The company’s overall operating net cash flow reached a record high.
At the same time, Changan Automobile has established the development goal of the enterprise in 2024: in 2024, the sales volume of the group was 2.8 million vehicles, up by 9.7% year-on-year. Its main brands include 1.25 million vehicles of Changan Gravitation, 250,000 vehicles of Changan Qiyuan, 280,000 vehicles of Deep Blue, 90,000 vehicles of Aouita and 230,000 vehicles of Changan Kaicheng. The new energy sales target is 750,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 55.9%; The overseas market sold 480,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 33.2%.
By 2025, the Group will sell 3.5-4 million vehicles, including 2.8-3 million vehicles in the independent sector, 1.2 million vehicles in new energy and 700,000 vehicles overseas. By 2030, the company’s total sales will exceed 5 million vehicles, including 4 million vehicles sold by independent sectors, 3 million to 3.5 million vehicles sold by new energy sources and 1.2 million vehicles sold overseas. Changan Automobile will become a world-class automobile enterprise.
At present, China’s new energy automobile industry is in a period of rapid development. According to the data released by China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China’s new energy vehicles maintained the development momentum of both production and sales. In 2023, both production and sales exceeded 9 million vehicles, ranking first in the world for nine consecutive years.
Zhu Huarong, Changan Automobile, said that Changan Automobile is facing many challenges, the price war is getting fiercer and the market environment is more complicated. Zhu Huarong not only improves its product technology, but also pays great attention to both ends of the automobile industry chain (R&D and customer service).
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