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Minimum-2! Is it going to snow in Jiangxi？ The weather in Jiangxi next ……

These days

The weather in Jiangxi is wet and cold, with continuous rain.

Netizens are looking forward to the big sun.

However, the reality is that

The rain continues, and the snow is coming.

The next few days

The temperature continues to drop.

Nanchang, Jiujiang and Pingxiang.

There will be sleet.

Coupled with strong winds and heavy rain.

The body feels wet and cold.

Pay attention to cold and warm! !

Except for the snowfall.

There are still many people who care.

Weather in Spring Festival travel rush and Jiangxi during the Spring Festival

Let’s take a look!

Climate trend prediction:

It is estimated that during the Spring Festival travel rush this year, there will be five cold air processes affecting Jiangxi Province, with more precipitation; In the middle period of Spring Festival travel rush (February 5-20), there will be staged low-temperature rain and snow weather in northern Jiangxi and high-altitude mountainous areas.

The main cities and scenic spots in the west of Jiangxi Province

Seven-day weather forecast

Rain and snow weather

The ground is slippery and the visibility is low.

Everyone should pay attention to traffic safety.

Besides, the weather is cold.

When you turn on the "fire" mode,

These safety knowledge must be kept in mind.

1. When using charcoal or firewood for heating indoors, don’t close the doors and windows, and keep the air circulating to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning.

2. Keep the brazier away from combustible materials to avoid fire caused by high temperature or Mars.

3. When using electric heaters such as small sun, keep a distance from combustible materials, and remember to turn off the power before going to bed or when going out.

Forward and remind

▼ You may also be interested in these.

Original title: "Minimum-2! Is it going to snow in Jiangxi? Next, the weather in Jiangxi …

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[Traveling in Xinjiang] Protecting the ＂Kidney of Nature＂ Xinjiang wetland is full of vitality and picturesque scenery.

　　Speaking of Sailimu Lake National Wetland Park, the tourists who have been here just past the "Eleventh" holiday are still unforgettable. The wetland park covers a total area of more than 1,000 square kilometers. There is the alpine cold water lake with the highest altitude and the largest area in Xinjiang. Wild foxes occasionally appear in the grass covered with wild flowers. There are groups of white swans flying over the lake with water and sky. There are 639 species of wild plants and 143 species of wild animals in various landscapes such as lakes, rivers, meadows and swamps.

　　During the "Eleventh" holiday, Mr. Zhang, a tourist from Shenzhen, stayed here for three days and still felt that he didn’t stay enough. Although he didn’t catch up with the famous Nadam convention, he lived in the Mongolian yurt inn next to the scenic spot, watched folk culture performances and took a walk by the lake, which made him deeply immersed in the harmony and tranquility of integrating into nature.

　　When it comes to Xinjiang, everyone will think of the boundless desert Gobi. In fact, there are all kinds of wetlands with a total area exceeding the land area of Hainan Province. Today, 11 of the 54 wetland parks in Xinjiang have been officially listed as national wetland parks. These wetlands have attracted tourists from all over the country for their unique charm.

　　Bird-watching and Landscape-watching Wetlands Drive Green Country Tour

　　A favorite place for new people in Xinjiang is the romantic Fuyun Cocotohai National Wetland Park. Located in the Altai Mountains, 48 kilometers northeast of Fuyun County, it is different from other wetlands in Xinjiang, where there are deep canyons, clear rivers, steep peaks, waterfalls, hot springs and wetlands. "In the Cocoto Sea Scenic Area with strong autumn colors, the mountains and rivers set each other off, forming a colorful natural background, and taking wedding photos is simply a stroke of genius." Recently, Ms. Chen from Shandong and her husband participated in the live broadcast of "Traveling in a Wedding Dress", leaving sweet memories in Cocoto Sea.

　　The lake is misty, the water plants sway with the wind, the fish and shrimp swim freely, and tens of thousands of waterfowl spread their wings … … During the "Eleventh" period, Mr. Wu, a tourist from Shandong Province, felt that he had come to the water town in the south of the Yangtze River, climbed the 18-meter-high Shuiyue observation deck near Hongfeng Lake, and got a panoramic view of the wetland park, which made him feel extremely comfortable.

　　Aksu National Wetland Park was officially opened this year, and 23 lakes and 5 observation platforms were built on the basis of maintaining the basic features of the original wetland. By the end of September, it had received more than 10,000 tourists during peak hours, with a cumulative passenger flow of over one million.

　　"At this time, Manas National Wetland Park, one of the important habitats of the third migratory line of the world’s migratory birds, gathers birdwatchers from all over the country every spring and autumn migration season. You can see more than 40 kinds of rare birds above the second level in the country here, which is a paradise for bird lovers. " Mr. Dong, a bird friend, said that there are 9 wetland observation platforms and 4 bird-watching towers in the wetland park, and green eco-rural tours focusing on eco-picking, sightseeing and leisure vacation are quietly emerging. Many villagers use the farmhouses operated by their own courtyards to attract tourists who come here to relax and experience rural life during the long vacation.

　　Rich in resources, many wetlands are spread all over the north and south of Tianshan Mountain.

　　Also known as the "Holy Land of Natural Photographic Materials" is Shawan Qianquan Lake National Wetland Park. There are more than 3,000 spring eyes dotted here, and the four-season overflow of spring water breeds tens of thousands of mu of reeds. The waterways are lush and green, and black-necked cranes, egrets, white cranes and geese are flying around.

　　On the basis of planting fruits and vegetables and aquaculture, farmers in the surrounding areas have set up many farmhouses, where tourists can fish, watch birds and take photos, and have a rich and colorful holiday experience.

　　If Kanas Lake is a daughter lake, it shows agility and liveliness. Sailimu Lake is a lover’s lake, showing charm and demure; Then Bosten Lake is Mother Lake, showing the mother’s mind and peace. This lake view, known as "Hawaii in the West", attracts tourists from all over the world.

　　Bosten Lake National Wetland Park officially passed the acceptance and listing at the end of 2017. In October, the temperature in southern Xinjiang was still high. Tourists from all over the world gathered under the continuous umbrellas on the golden beach to watch the spectacular migration of birds, sigh the magic of the wetland connected with the desert, ride freely on the lake by speedboat, and enjoy sunbathing in the golden beach sand treatment … …

　　There are many wetland parks all over the north and south, such as pearls scattered all over the ground: Wuqilike National Wetland Park in Altay City, which is located in the golden latitude of skiing in the world for more than 180 days, and the first helicopter skiing base in China is located here; It is positioned as a natural river wetland park with regional characteristics in the northwest plateau of China, and Buxair National Wetland Park inherits local culture in addition to the natural landscape; The largest permanent freshwater lake in northern Xinjiang, Wulungu Lake National Wetland Park is rich in unique and rich fish … … Turpan Aiding Lake Wetland Park and Nalati Marsh Wetland Park have their own characteristics and are too numerous to mention.

　　Green mountains and green waters have contributed greatly to the practice of ecological protection.

　　Not only is it beautiful and rich, but the ecological function of the wetland "the kidney of nature" is even more irreplaceable.

　　Minfeng County is located in the Niya River National Wetland Park on the southern edge of Taklimakan Desert. The fragile ecosystem was once short of water due to wetlands, resulting in reduced vegetation coverage and dusty scenes. After the approval of the National Wetland Park, the local government actively took effective measures such as water saving and water conservation, and restored the function of the wetland green ecological barrier. Now, the rivers and lakes here are the same color, and the Niya River, as a "moat", has blocked the advancement of the desert, and the sky is blue and clear, giving birth to vitality.

　　In the Chaiwobao Lake National Wetland Park at the foot of Bogda Peak in the southeast of Urumqi, the lake was almost dry in 2014. With the implementation of various environmental improvement work in recent years, the water surface area has recovered from 0.24 square kilometers to nearly 15 square kilometers today. Walking on the wooden plank road to the bird-watching platform, visitors can see rare and endangered bird species including black stork, jade belt sea eagle and white-tailed sea eagle through high-powered telescope. Wild animals under national second-class protection, such as swan, crane, red deer, argali and goose throat antelope, are also frequent visitors here … …

　　All kinds of changes and the gradual restoration of the ecological environment are inseparable from people who silently pay for the protection of the ecology. In order to prevent the tears of Lake Chaiwobao from becoming the last drop of water, an ecological change that lasted for four years began. Restricting the exploitation of groundwater, returning farmland to 20726 mu, and shutting down 24 agricultural irrigation wells … … The old horse, a villager who lives not far from Chaiwobao Lake, is also the one who put it into action. "Four years ago, the staff of Chaiwobao Management Committee went door to door to promote ecological protection to us." In order to prevent livestock from destroying the wetland, the old horse sold more than 100 sheep that were kept by himself. "I have been living here. If I can make Chaiwobao Lake as beautiful as before, it will be worth it!"

　　Four years later, with the improvement of the ecological environment here, the cultivated land that has been fallow for many years has gradually resumed farming. In order to prevent the desertification of cultivated land, under the guidance of the local government, Lao Ma planted 2,000 apricot trees in his cultivated land this spring. He expects to be able to grow trees and increase his family’s income in a few years.

　　The regional tourism development conference held on August 25 this year pointed out that Xinjiang has a water area of 5,500 square kilometers, more than 3,400 rivers and more than 100 lakes, many of which have unique advantages in creating wetland landscapes. Among them, 11 wetland parks have officially become "national brands", integrating wetland protection and utilization, popular science education, wetland research, eco-tourism and other functions, each of which has its own unique ecological and cultural heritage. Nowadays, under the principle of "comprehensive protection, scientific restoration, rational utilization and sustainable development", all prefectures in Xinjiang are actively developing new growth poles of ecotourism, developing wetland ecotourism under the requirement of practicing green development mode, welcoming visitors from all directions in the best way of harmonious coexistence between man and nature, and tasting the unique customs of Xinjiang.

　　Text | Xinjiang Economic News New Media Center reporter Kang Yanyan

Self-enrollment allows key middle schools to be busy with the college entrance examination in advance. Teacher： Don’t report blindly.

　　Independent enrollment makes key middle schools busy with the college entrance examination in advance

　　The temptation of grabbing students in colleges and universities is more opportunities and less opportunities. The teacher suggested not to report blindly.

　　Self-enrollment stirs up the middle school campus

　　"I have sent the materials to Peking University." At present, Xiao Fan (pseudonym) of the middle school affiliated to Fudan University is preparing for the written test of Peking University’s independent selection exam.

　　There are still more than half a year before the national college entrance examination in 2008, but the independent enrollment work of major universities has started in full swing. In November, Peking University, Tsinghua University, Zhejiang University, Fudan University, China People’s University and other online enrollment networks, online registration channels have been opened. This year, the number of self-selected colleges and universities has also increased from 22 in 2003 to 59.

　　Bao Fanchen, a senior three student in weiyu high school, told reporters that the students around him are actively preparing for the proficiency test of Fudan University and the winter camp plan of Shanghai Jiaotong University. Every Tuesday at 6 pm and Friday at 3 pm, the school will arrange teachers to give counseling lectures to students who are going to take the independent selection exams of Fudan University and Shanghai Jiaotong University. "There are more than 500 students in the whole grade, and nearly 300 students are present at each time, accounting for more than half."

　　Considering that students who choose physics may forget chemistry, and those who choose chemistry may forget history and geography, Bao Fanchen’s school has specially held a counseling lecture for students who need to take the independent selection examination.

　　It is reported that in 2008, the specific programs of Fudan University’s independent selection and admission work include: the selection and testing program for students who walk (including non-foreign languages, English, and non-common languages), the selection and testing program for art and sports specialty students, the Boya Cup Humanities Knowledge Grand Prix, and the "Fudan Level Test". Among them, "Fudan Proficiency Test" is open to all high school graduates. The test content includes 10 subjects, including Chinese, mathematics, English, politics, history, geography, physics, chemistry, biology and computer. The test forms are all multiple-choice questions. The test time is 3 hours and the total score is 1000 points.

　　Squeeze into the winter camp and gain one more chance.

　　"Students taking the self-selection exam can reduce the pressure of the college entrance examination. For example, if you apply for the independent selection of Fudan University, if you have passed the written test and the interview, the college entrance examination will be enough. " Bao Fanchen also mentioned the winter camp plan of Shanghai Jiaotong University. After entering the winter camp, students are divided into four grades according to their grades, such as A, B, C and D. When enrolling in the college entrance examination, the A grade can be reduced by 20 points, the B grade by 15 points, the C grade by 10 points and the D grade by 5 points. For this plan, "the students are very enthusiastic."

　　"Although the exam is busy, the senior three environment is like this." Bao Fanchen mentioned that for independent enrollment, the teachers of the school are based on the principle of students’ voluntariness, but because the independent selection examination can give students a chance, the teachers are also more supportive.

　　"Half of the students in our class are preparing for the independent selection examination in colleges and universities." Chen Wenrui of Suzhou Experimental Middle School said that in addition to online registration, there will be an interview inside the school to select better students to recommend. "After all, this is also an opportunity, and the teachers are more encouraging. The students who participated are doing their best to prepare."

　　Xiaofeng (pseudonym) from Shanghai Gezhi Middle School is waiting for the recommendation form of Tongji University to arrive at the school these two days. "All the watches are collected by the class teacher. In principle, everyone can only choose one school, so you must prepare for the exam carefully when you get the table. If you are not admitted, there will be no chance. "

　　There are more than 500 senior three students in Xiaofeng’s school, and about 70 students got the winter camp form from Shanghai Jiaotong University. "Five students in our class took the form, and now they are all preparing." The application steps of Xiaofeng’s school are as follows: students who want to participate in the independent selection of colleges and universities can first register with the class teacher, then summarize them to the class teacher, and then the class teacher will send them to the academic affairs office of the school. Next, according to the proportion of arts and sciences and the ranking of exams, the specific list will be finally determined.

　　Xiaofeng told reporters that last year, there were more than 100 students in Gezhi Middle School who took the "Thousand-Score Examination" of Fudan University, and 50 students passed, but only 9 students finally got the admission notice of Fudan University. "Fudan University’s 1000-point exam is a sea election, which is a good opportunity for students from all schools." However, considering that the exam involves all subjects in high school and examines students’ comprehensive strength, Xiaofeng feels that it takes a lot of time to prepare for the exam, and it may not be successful, so it is better to settle down and take the exam in a school that she wants to take.

　　"The bonus test is only to add a score to the score line of the college entrance examination. If the score line is not enough, the previous test will be useless." Xiaofeng said that his parents are very supportive of his idea. As long as it does not affect the normal review, "you can fill in the form you want to apply for."

　　Li Yun of Shanghai No.3 Middle School told the reporter that there was no rush of students around to register for independent enrollment in colleges and universities. "But some students take action. I just finished the online composition of Fudan University’s My College Dream a few days ago. " Li Yun mentioned that several students around him have applied for the independent entrance examination of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics and are actively reviewing English and mathematics. "Everyone has a different orientation."

　　Teacher’s attitude: no recommendation and no objection.

　　Since the end of November, Xiao Wei (a pseudonym), a senior three student in Shanghai Yucai Middle School, has been studying more intensely. "This year, it seems that the independent selection examinations of major universities have been advanced, and I am not ready for it."

　　Xiaowei’s grades are at the lower level in his class. As the college entrance examination approaches, he feels more and more pressure and motivation. After all, there are still more than half a year, and I may be able to rush up again.

　　At first, Xiaowei’s mood was somewhat ambivalent. Signing up for the self-selected examination in colleges and universities meant spending more time on the subjects for preparing for the exam. Failure to sign up was tantamount to wasting time. If you don’t sign up, the students around you will ask questions again. "Which one did you apply for?" Students will communicate this problem with each other. Many students are actively preparing for the exam. " Xiaowei said this.

　　After learning that the registration of East China University of Science and Technology and Shanghai University of Finance and Economics started, Xiaowei submitted the registration form online. "He also wants to try his luck and prepare for the exam first." Xiaowei’s mother said that now the children don’t go to bed until after 12 o’clock every night, and the review is also very serious. They have entered the state of examination in advance and have great psychological pressure. "If he wants to take the exam, let him warm up in advance, but I reminded him not to take this too seriously."

　　"The focus of the school is still the college entrance examination, and the focus of students is also the college entrance examination. Finally, look at the college entrance examination score line." Li Jianguo, a teacher from Anhui Lu ‘an No.1 Middle School, said.

　　Li Jianguo advocates "no recommendation, no objection" for students to take the self-selected examination. If students voluntarily sign up and feel that their ability is better, they can take an examination of a better school than this one, and they can make further efforts in the rest of the time. If students with lower and middle grades also want to sign up for the independent examination, the teacher will never hurt the students’ self-confidence. "You can let him go to the school he can reach."

　　Li Jianguo pointed out that the present self-selection examination is not particularly standardized. "Each school has not yet taken the exam outline, and there is no directionality, which is bound to bring certain negative effects. If students actively prepare for the exam and fail to reach the independent enrollment line, first, time is wasted, and second, students’ emotions are affected to some extent. " Teacher Li stressed that "in the final stage before the college entrance examination, students’ emotions are very important, and good self-confidence is also helpful for learning."

　　Middle and lower school students are most affected.

　　Li Jing, a senior three teacher in Zhengzhou Foreign Languages School, said that preferential policies are generally given only after the college entrance examination reaches a certain score, and there are different requirements for independent selection examinations in different schools, so students should choose good schools and majors. "The subjects of the school’s independent entrance examination may be different from those of the college entrance examination, which also requires students to review differently."

　　Li Jing gave an example. For example, Tsinghua University’s score in Henan is 680 points, and it is enough for candidates who have passed independent enrollment to get 660 points. This is a drop-off admission; Another kind, candidates can be admitted as long as they pass a local score line; There are also extra points for admission. When choosing a school that enrolls students independently, students must see clearly what the requirements of the school are.

　　Li Jing believes that the students who are in the top grades now sign up for the self-selected examination, and the students with lower grades are most affected, because the self-selected colleges and universities are generally more than one university, mainly for students with upper-middle grades. "Students should find out what grade and position they belong to and judge whether they belong to this category. If they don’t belong to this category, they should fully participate in the college entrance examination. If students feel that they can achieve it with their own efforts, they can take the independent entrance examination, which is also an opportunity after all. "

　　"Students and parents should not blindly choose schools. Students must determine what kind of school they want to go to. If you pass the independent exam, but the college entrance examination can’t even reach a line, the independent enrollment exam is a waste. "

　　Li Jing further suggested that the class teacher should know the students better and give them some advice based on their learning situation, development potential and hobbies. And students should not choose too many schools that choose their own exams, and spend too much time and energy on it. If students apply to a particularly large number of schools, such as going to Beijing, Shanghai and Wuhan to take exams, "it will affect the normal review of the college entrance examination." (Intern Zhang Qi, reporter Zhou Kai)

　　interlinkage

　　Not many students actually benefit from independent enrollment.

　　During this period, colleges and universities have issued their own enrollment plans in 2008, and several key middle schools in Nanchang have received letters from some colleges and universities about their own enrollment policies in 2008. However, Director Huang of the Political and Educational Affairs Office of Yuzhang Middle School in Nanchang revealed that Yuzhang Middle School has not received any official letters from colleges and universities about their own enrollment policies in 2008. Director Huang said that colleges and universities generally send letters to key middle schools in various provinces and cities, because there are more students in key middle schools who meet the requirements of independent enrollment in colleges and universities, and fewer students in ordinary middle schools who meet the application conditions. According to Director Huang, no student in Yuzhang Middle School enjoyed the policy of independent enrollment in 2007.

　　It is understood that there are actually very few students who can really enjoy the preferential policies brought by independent enrollment in colleges and universities. There are two channels for candidates to apply for the independent entrance examination: school recommendation and self-application. First of all, the general requirements for independent enrollment are fresh high school graduates with extraordinary innovation and practical ability, or special talents in literature, art and sports, or among the best in comprehensive quality.

　　Principal Bao of Nanchang No.1 Middle School said that according to this condition, only about a dozen or twenty students in Nanchang No.1 Middle School are eligible to enter the exam every year.

　　President Bao also said that the preferential policies for independent enrollment in colleges and universities only take effect under certain conditions. Some students scored very well in the college entrance examination, disdained the schools that took the self-enrollment examination at the beginning, did not take the self-enrollment colleges as their first choice, and filled in other schools after the examination, so this policy was wasted. Some candidates will also fail to reach the admission line because of their abnormal performance, which is useless.

　　Director Chen of the Academic Affairs Office of Nanchang No.10 Middle School said that students who apply for key universities are relatively strong. A considerable number of outstanding candidates can easily enter key universities by passing their college entrance examination results, and there is no need for preferential policies in the independent entrance examination.

　　Director Chen finally said that independent enrollment still depends on the results of the college entrance examination in June next year, and the level of the college entrance examination results determines whether candidates can finally be admitted. (According to "Urban Consumer News")

Editor: Zhu Zhen

Xi ‘an, Shaanxi： New Year’s Eve fireworks show welcomes the ancient city of New Year Yao.

Jin Hu retired from the old year and Yutu welcomed the new year. On New Year’s Eve, in order to let citizens and tourists spend a festive and lively Spring Festival, Xi ‘an, Shaanxi Province has carefully prepared grand theme fireworks display activities in six areas of the city to celebrate the Happy Year of China.

On January 21st, New Year’s Eve, in Xixian New Area, Xi ‘an, Kunming and Chi Pan, a grand fireworks show attracted many people. Fireworks ignite the city fireworks, conveying the joy and happiness of the Year of the Rabbit and the New Year. At 8 o’clock that night, fireworks of various shapes were like blooming flowers, blooming in the night sky. Under the fireworks, smiling faces were full of happiness and joy. Everyone raised their mobile phones and cameras to record beautiful moments and looked forward to the arrival of the New Year in the colorful fireworks.

Colorful and colorful fireworks not only presented a wonderful visual feast for citizens and tourists, but also showed the prosperity of the rapid recovery of tourism in the ancient city of Xi’ an. Appreciate the splendor of thousands of trees blooming in the east wind at night, and the flowers of fire trees and silver flowers blooming all night. In the dazzling fireworks show, everyone wishes the great motherland prosperity and the people a happy and healthy life.

Gorgeous fireworks carry people’s good wishes for the new year. During the Spring Festival this year, Xi ‘an will also hold a number of colorful Spring Festival cultural tours.

(Reporter Yan Xingguang, Yan Xiaobin, Zhao Zhenkai)

MTR： Local trains will operate all night on New Year’s Eve.

　　The Hong Kong SAR Government has previously announced that the Shenzhen Bay Port will operate 24 hours a day from New Year’s Eve to the fourth day (February 9-13); The opening of Luohu Port was extended to 2 am on New Year’s Eve and the second day of the second day (February 9 and 11). The MTR Corporation announced that on New Year’s Eve, all seven MTR local railway lines (except Airport Express and Disney Line) and light rail lines will run overnight, while three MTR bus routes will extend their service hours. In addition, the cross-boundary train service between east rail line and lo wu station will be extended on New Year’s Eve (9th) and the second day of junior high school (11th) to tie in with the customs clearance time at Luohu Port, but there is no extended service at Lok Ma Chau Station. During the Spring Festival, the MTR is expected to add about 1,850 buses to serve passengers.

　　According to the MTR, the last train from east rail line to Lo Wu will leave admiralty station at 12: 56 midnight and arrive in lo wu station at about 1: 46 am, about 14 minutes before the port is closed. Passengers should pay attention to the closing time of the port and seize the time to pass the customs. The last east rail line-Admiralty train from lo wu station will depart at 2: 30am (about half an hour after the port is closed) and arrive in admiralty station at about 3: 20am.

　　MTR reminded that other local railway lines did not extend their services on the evening of the second day (11th), and the normal last bus time will be maintained. The Lok Ma Chau Spur Line Control Point will be closed at 10: 30 pm as usual, and there will be no extended service at Lok Ma Chau Station in east rail line. Train service to and from Lok Ma Chau Station will be maintained, and the last train to Lok Ma Chau Station will leave from admiralty station at 9: 29 pm.

　　According to the MTR, after discussion with the mainland railway authorities, the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong high-speed rail service will increase 11 pairs (22 shifts) of high-speed trains between Hong Kong West Kowloon Station and Futian Station every day from the second day to the fourth day (11th-13th), and the daily train frequency will increase to 105 pairs. Tickets for new train shifts will be put on sale from now on (3rd). The relevant tickets can be changed on the same day by using Fukuda "Flexible Travel", making it more convenient and flexible for passengers to travel on holidays.

　　MTR appeals to passengers to use their mobile phones to use MTR Mobile or MTR website to check the last bus information of each railway line, plan their trips in advance and reserve sufficient time for their trips. During the Spring Festival, the MTR will strengthen information dissemination, station instructions and broadcasting to help passengers understand the relevant arrangements.

　　GDToday reporter chenchen is from Hongkong.

Innovating the recruitment mechanism of civil servants’ examination

　　In recent years, open recruitment examination has become the most important channel for state organs at all levels to select and employ public servants. However, practice also shows that there are still some defects in the civil service examination and employment system, which directly affects the fairness of examination and employment. In this year’s government work report, Premier Wen Jiabao clearly stated that it is necessary to further improve the National Civil Service Law and accelerate the establishment of a scientific, fair and just civil service examination and employment system. To this end, reform and innovate the civil service examination.

　　The employment system has become an important task at present.

　　Fairness is an important prerequisite for the civil service examination and employment system to gain wide social recognition and social credibility, but some problems existing in the system design and specific operation of civil service examination and employment have weakened this fairness to some extent. This is mainly manifested in: first, the rule defects, and second, the operation defects. The former mainly refers to the unreasonable conditions set by the management department in the qualification of social members to apply for the exam, which restricts and prevents some social members from joining the ranks of civil servants, thus causing unfairness in the entrance examination threshold. For example, Article 16 of the Regulations on the Employment of Civil Servants stipulates that with the approval of the competent department of civil servants at or above the provincial level, the age and academic qualifications of applicants may be appropriately adjusted; However, at the same time, it is stipulated that the competent department of civil servants and the recruitment agency shall not set qualifications unrelated to job requirements. As a matter of fact, in the examination of civil servants at all levels, civil servant management departments and recruitment agencies at or above the provincial level often use the power of "appropriate adjustment" to set many unreasonable conditions on qualifications such as academic qualifications, age and household registration. The latter mainly refers to the fact that some specific circumstances that the management department should consider when formulating the civil service examination and employment system have not been fully considered, which leads to the deviation of the examination and admission work from the expected goal and the unfairness of the results. For example, in the interview stage of the civil service examination, most of the examiners who participate in the interview evaluation (that is, examiners composed of organizations and personnel departments) are still from the local area. As the traditional society in China is an "acquaintance society" and the narrowness of the region provides low cost for the humanization of the relationship,It enables candidates to get to know, woo and even bribe examiners through various channels, so as to achieve the purpose of obtaining high interview scores. In the investigation stage, because the family, neighbors or colleagues of the object of investigation are unlikely to talk about the "acquaintances" who are about to leave themselves for human reasons, this often makes the investigation a mere formality.

　　In view of some disadvantages in the current employment mechanism, we believe that it is imperative to innovate the mechanism. When innovating the mechanism of civil servant examination, we should truly follow the principles of fairness, procedure, transparency and economy.

　　The first is the principle of fairness. The civil service examination should put fairness in the first place. Everyone who enters the exam must take the exam, and everyone who takes the exam must achieve equal opportunities and equal rules. In terms of equality of opportunity, it is mainly reflected that all People’s Republic of China (PRC) citizens, regardless of gender, nationality and occupation, have the equal right to register for the examination as long as they meet the requirements of the post’s ability to perform their duties. In terms of equality of rules, it is mainly reflected in determining the recruitment conditions, examination types and examination contents according to unified standards and procedures, and conducting qualification examination, physical examination and merit-based recruitment according to procedures.

　　Secondly, the procedural principle. It is not only the need to simplify the operation, but also an effective means to prevent human operation to carry out the examination and recruitment of civil servants in a programmed way. The proceduralization of the examination work should be reflected in three aspects: First, the procedure is legal. That is, the steps that need to be taken in the examination and admission work: publishing the recruitment announcement, qualification examination, written examination, interview, investigation, drafting personnel, publicity, employment, etc. must be determined through legal channels. Second, the program is rigid. The legislature should conduct in-depth research and analysis in combination with the actual situation, formulate practical and rigid operating procedures, prevent artificial manipulation of examination results, and ensure that the candidates are determined in the order of high and low comprehensive scores to the greatest extent.

　　Thirdly, the principle of transparency. Recruitment of civil servants should be announced to the public as soon as possible, so that every citizen who meets the conditions and has the intention to apply for the examination can take the public examination; Announce the number of candidates for each position in time when applying for the exam, and rationally allocate and optimize the resources for the exam; Written test results, interview results, inspection results, ranking and employment status are published in a timely manner; The reasons for changing the ranking of civil servants must be announced.

　　On the basis of the above principles, it is necessary to innovate the operating procedures of examination recruitment and refine the operating procedures to ensure the fairness of the examination system. At present, the main process of civil servant recruitment by examination in China is: publishing recruitment announcement-registration and qualification examination-examination (including written examination and interview)-inspection and physical examination-public approval or filing. Among them, after the written test, they will enter the interview according to a certain proportion, and after the interview, they will enter the inspection and physical examination according to a certain proportion. After the inspection and physical examination, the personnel department and the employer will determine the candidates to be hired from the top candidates. There are two links in this process that are flexible: one is interview, and the other is inspection. Due to excessive flexibility, the fairness of the exam may be reduced. Therefore, we should improve these two links in detail, and we can put the physical examination before the inspection. After the written test, you can enter the interview according to a certain proportion, enter the physical examination according to a certain proportion after the interview, and conduct an inspection according to a certain proportion after the physical examination. In this way, it is easy to model operation, reduce the cost, and more importantly, it embodies the principle of fairness and puts an end to the disadvantages of human relations to the maximum extent.

　　It is necessary to improve the management mechanism of interviewers, organize exchanges in different places, and ensure the fairness of interview results. Interview is an important link in the examination and registration of civil servants. It is beyond doubt to strengthen the management of interview and establish a scientific interview mechanism. To improve the interview management mechanism, we can mainly start from the following aspects: First, implement the information base management of interview examiners. A certain number of professionals are transferred from relevant fields and departments and entered into the examiner information database according to a certain structure. When there is a recruitment task, they are randomly selected, and the drawn examiners are managed in a centralized and closed way until the end of the examination. The second is to establish an examiner’s exchange system in different places. The third is to establish a double lottery system for pre-test interviews: the examiner draws lots to determine the positions to participate in the evaluation, and the candidates draw lots to determine the interview team to be evaluated. The fourth is to establish a rotation training system for examiners.

　　It is necessary to strengthen the supervision and restriction mechanism to ensure the fairness of examination and employment. A good supervision and restriction mechanism should have a perfect internal supervision and external supervision system. Internal supervision is mainly a way for the management department to supervise the whole process of civil servant examination and registration through its own deployment of certain material resources and manpower. It is mainly realized in two ways: first, a supervision working group composed of cadres from the organization, discipline inspection and personnel departments at the same level supervises the whole process of examination. Second, representatives from people’s congresses or CPPCC members at the same level sent representatives to supervise. In addition, it is more important to strengthen external supervision, establish an effective external supervision system, and standardize the examination process through the system. For example, you can let the news media follow the whole process, including entering the interview examination room; Establish a monitoring system for the whole process of the interview site, and the examiner at the interview site will show the points on the spot and elect representatives of the masses to supervise in the monitoring room; Establish a complaint system for candidates. Students think that the examination process is unfair and have the right to make a complaint within a certain period of time or ask the discipline inspection department to intervene. (Ai Lisheng/Party School of Hunan Provincial Committee of the Communist Party of China)

Editor: Liu Li

Zhejiang Sports Lottery held 2024 Spring Festival travel rush Public Welfare Activities.

&emsp; &emsp; On January 30th, 2024 Zhejiang Sports Lottery launched the charity activity of "Love Small Bench Warm Home Road", which added warmth to the homecoming people’s way home.

&emsp; &emsp; The theme of this activity is "Love Small Bench Warms the Way Home", and 20,000 Zhang Aixin small benches are distributed free of charge in 13 key transportation hubs in Zhejiang Province, such as hangzhou east railway station, Hangzhou West Railway Station, Ningbo Railway Station and Wenzhou South Railway Station, for passengers with standing tickets and children when traveling.

&emsp; &emsp; This is the seventh year of the charity event of "Love Little Bench" in Zhejiang Sports Lottery. This year, the activity of free family photo shooting has been added: in the designated area of the above delivery point, passengers can participate in the family photo shooting with the theme of the Spring Festival and get a beautifully customized photo frame.

&emsp; &emsp; "This small bench was delivered very timely and thoughtful, and we also took a family photo. I think it is very memorable. Go back and cherish this photo. Hangzhou is really a warm city." Ms. Wang, who is waiting for the bus, gave a thumbs-up to this charity event.

&emsp; &emsp; "This small bench is very practical. It can be used when waiting for the bus. It can also be used on the high-speed rail later. It can also be taken when taking children out to play. It is quite light." Passenger Li said.

&emsp; &emsp; It is understood that in 2023, Zhejiang Sports Lottery launched a variety of public welfare activities in various parts of Zhejiang Province, covering sports, education, health and other fields, adhering to the concept of "public welfare sports lottery is good for life", practicing the responsibility and mission of Chinese sports lottery, and sending care and warmth to the needy groups. (Zhang Lu/Wen Zhejiang Sports Lottery Management Center/Photo courtesy)

The real estate broker war is just around the corner, and the C position of the shell is in danger？｜ Depth

Source: Wumian Finance

Author: Chen Xinmiao

Editor: Lei Zhizhi

Design: Budong

Editor’s Assistant: Zhu Zhiqi

The real estate brokerage market is surging.

Who would have expected that Ke Holdings Inc. (NYSE：BEKE, hereinafter referred to as "Shell"), which has been controversial all the way, could become the darling of capital. Since its listing in August 2020, its share price has been rising all the way, and its market value once reached 600 billion yuan. Today, its market value is still as high as 560.674 billion yuan (US$ 86.522 billion), killing a number of leading real estate enterprises such as "Bi Rong Wan Heng" and firmly taking the first place in the industry.

▲ Ke Holdings Inc. rings the bell, and the market performance is unexpectedly good. The picture comes from the internet.

At the beginning of the shell’s birth, it was impossible to sit still in the same city, but it seemed like another scene. In 2019, 21st Century Real Estate and Zhonghuan Internet have turned their backs on each other. By the end of 2020, World Bank announced in a paper that it had withdrawn from the new house joint sales platform 58 Aifang together with the same policy consultation. In the past, the "anti-shell alliance" was a mess.

58 series has fallen into the wind, but in the face of the fierce growth of shells, the Internet, developers and other capitals rushed into the "blue ocean" of the real estate trading market. Much attention has been paid to the online real estate trading platform "Tmall Good Room" launched by Yiju and Ali, with the intention of providing the industry with another choice besides shells; Evergrande acquired companies and stores on a large scale, and set up RV Bao Group to benchmark shells. The future journey is trillions of valuation, packaging and listing.

In the face of crisis and temptation, the forces of all parties are changing, and the smoke of war has already filled the air.

Shell alone according to c position"We are making a stadium, and more and more people want to play football here, and the rules are getting better and better." Zuo Hui once described shells with football. In his view, the nature of the industry is changing, and what shells do is to rebuild the ecology of the whole industry centered on store managers and brokers.

To a large extent, the shell’s confidence comes from the real estate dictionary and ACN (broker cooperation network) two methodologies. These are the two moats that the chain used to be, and now they have become the bottom rules for real estate brokerage brands to settle in shells.

Under the platform rules, the real estate transaction process is divided into multiple links, and brokers are encouraged to cooperate with each other, participate in different links and share the benefits; Brokerage brands on the platform can share all real listing information indiscriminately.

▲ Shell’s ACN network splits the real estate transaction process into multiple links, in which various roles play different roles. Image from late LatePost.

You know, before the shell, there were no rules in the extensive development of the real estate brokerage industry, and the shell was undoubtedly the one who ate crabs. Different from the ordinary internet platform, Shell tries to define the basic measures of house transaction in a closed-loop intercommunication mode, which strongly controls the rules of the platform, and intends to strengthen the information interaction of brokers and improve the transaction efficiency.

But the controversy of "being both an athlete and a referee" also comes from here, and shells need to prove themselves urgently. However, at present, the shell model has worked.

Switching from direct operation and franchise mode to platform mode, in just over two years, Shell has been attacking the city, and entered the capital market in August 2020, becoming the largest real estate transaction and service platform in China, with a GTV of 2.13 trillion yuan (the total transaction volume of the platform) second only to Alibaba in China.

After listing, the shell scale effect is still expanding. In the third quarter of 2020, the GTV (total trading volume of platforms) reached 1.05 trillion yuan, an increase of 87.2% year-on-year; The operating income was 20.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70.9%. In the first three quarters, the accumulated GTV and revenue of the shell platform have exceeded 2.13 trillion yuan and 46 billion yuan in 2019.

Looking at the industry, shells are also far ahead. Based on the national housing transaction volume, the market share of shells in 2019 was 9.5%, while the market share of mainstream brokerage companies represented by Zhongyuan Real Estate, I Love My Family and Leyoujia was only 4.3%, 1.9% and 1.3% respectively.

In addition to scale, cross-store brand cooperation and store efficiency are also data that Shell is willing to share with the outside world, which proves that its rules are effective.

From 2018 to the first half of 2020, the number of non-chain stores increased from 8,136 to 34,547, and the number of brokers increased from 60,900 to 321,800, which has achieved significant growth since the birth of the shell (April 2018). According to CIC report, in 2019, the single-store transaction volume of shell platform was 1.6 times that of the industry, and 70% of the stock house transactions came from cross-store transactions.

During this period, real estate brokerage brands such as 21st Century Real Estate, Central Real Estate and Dwelling House settled in Shell. In addition, after the restart of the franchise brand Deyou, it is also attracting small and medium-sized intermediary brands from all over the world.

Taking the Wuhan market as an example, according to the "Prism" news, Xie Juan, the chairman of Wuhan Fangrong Company, said that in early 2019, the company’s three major brands had more than 600 stores, and under the strong attack of Shell, nearly 200 stores were lost in September.

However, the shell that occupies the super C position in the industry is facing the torture of whether it will become an industry monopolist.

For example, in September 2019, representatives of 100 real estate agencies in Jinhua, Zhejiang Province jointly signed the Anti-Shell Alliance Treaty, and 530 stores in the alliance shouted "Oppose monopoly and resist unhealthy competition"; In April 2020, 100 intermediary companies in Yancheng, Jiangsu Province also rebelled against the shellfish system on the grounds of "resisting bad competition".

58 alliance collapseCompared with the highlights of shells, the "anti-shell alliance" initiated by 58 cities in the past is now an exit, and the momentum of defection is not as good as before.

The real estate information platform under the same city is an important source of revenue. But the shell moving from offline to online undoubtedly moved its cheese.

To this end, in June 2018, 58 cities launched a real estate alliance, wooing brokerage brands such as I love my family, Zhongyuan Real Estate, 21st Century Real Estate China, and Zhonghuan Internet, shouting "58 will never be self-employed" and pointing to shells; Ten days later, 58 City became a strategic shareholder, I love my family, and the curve cut into the real estate agency industry.

▲ The swearing-in meeting on the platform of Yao Jinbo Zhang Luo and Zhongzhong Brokerage Company pointed out that the opponent was naturally the shell that was not present. The picture comes from the internet.

However, the "anti-shell alliance" is not solid, but more like a rush to hold a group when facing the unknown new thing of shells. Less than a year after the alliance, the real estate in the 21 ST century will "surrender" to the shell; In the same year, Central Internet and I love my family, but they failed to reorganize, and turned to cooperate with Shell.

Nearly 9,000 stores under the two brand brokerage companies have entered the shell, which is undoubtedly a heavy blow to 58 cities. According to media reports, since 2019, in order to prevent more intermediary companies from accessing the shell system, 58 cities have spared no effort to ban "shell takers", and the "two-choice-one" dispute has intensified in the intermediary industry.

In 2020, the number of allies in 58 cities will continue to decrease. Prior to this, in 2019, 58 cities, World Bank and Tongce Consulting jointly established the new house joint selling platform 58 Aifang, with the intention of grabbing the new house distribution market with platforms such as Shell and Yiju. However, by the end of the year, World Bank and Tongce Consulting both withdrew and transferred 55% of their shares in 58 Aifang to 58 cities.

Behind the "breakup" is the continuous loss of 58 love houses. According to the announcement of World Bank, the competition in the field of new house joint selling platform is fierce, and it is still in the early stage of investment and loss. In 2019, Shanghai Geng Ying Net (the operating entity of 58 Aifang) lost 95.74 million yuan; From January to September 2020, the net loss further expanded to 172 million yuan.

Jiang Han, a senior researcher at Pangu think tank, believes that there is no way to evacuate Tongce and World Bank. For the whole market, 58 Aifang has not formed its own hematopoietic mechanism and relatively strong market competitiveness. The final result is that the participants have not gained their sense of belonging and hope for market development.

Not only that, I was particularly active in the process of shelling shells. I publicly stated that "the platform that is both online and offline is not acceptable to us in business ethics and operational logic". I love my family and was reduced by 58 cities in August last year. After the reduction, the shareholding ratio of 58 cities will be reduced to 4.99%.

Although the gambling was successfully completed, I love my family’s scale expansion in recent years, and the scale of channels and houses is far less than that of shells. There are tens of thousands of stores and trillions of transactions with Shell, and I love my family. These two indicators are still in the stage of hundreds of billions.

Teammates defected, the alliance split, and allies didn’t give strength. So it seems that 58 cities have already fallen behind in this platform dispute provoked by themselves.

However, 58 cities are still sticking to their teeth. Its CEO Yao Jinbo once publicly compared Apple and Android phones to Shell and 58. "It is hard to say that Apple phones are open platforms, but Android phones are open platforms and can be produced by many people."

On the occasion of the listing of shells last year, Yao Jinbo, CEO of 58 City, wrote in a circle of friends: "Today, shells are listed, and congratulations are extended to General Manager Zuo Hui. But responsibly speaking, we believe that the open platform Android will be greater than closed, and 58 Anjuke will enter/empower the industry in all directions after delisting! "

In addition, 58 love houses has become a channel for 58 cities to compete for intermediary resources. According to Tianyancha data, 58 Aifang actually controls 193 companies, most of which are local intermediary brands, including Chongqing Home, Guangxi Youju, Changsha Seagull, Wuhan Nuojia and Anhui Zhongshu Real Estate.

The giant is a powerful spoiler.In the face of crisis and temptation, housing enterprises and Internet tycoons can’t sit still.

It is hard to imagine that the shell from the hard work of the intermediary can create a market value of over 500 billion yuan, which is undoubtedly a huge impact on the high-ranking housing enterprises in the past. When most housing enterprises are facing channelization, shell’s right to speak is also increasing. According to the third quarterly report of 2020, the transaction volume of shell new houses increased by 105% year-on-year to 420.7 billion yuan, and the revenue of new houses has surpassed that of second-hand houses.

Evergrande took the lead in rushing out of a group of real estate enterprises, launched RV treasures and benchmarked shells, with the ultimate goal of listing.

At the end of December last year, Xu Jiayin officially unveiled RV Bao Group, and announced its three major departments: RV Bao National Brokerage Platform, RV Bao Platform and RV Bao SaaS Management Platform, covering transactions of new houses, second-hand houses, new cars and used cars, as well as home improvement and car user services.

The growth of RV Bao began with a large-scale collection of intermediaries, and the path was huge subsidies. "I give you money and you give me traffic resources; I don’t want your money, but you have to obey the management and we will go public together, "RV Bao wrote in the cooperation mechanism.

The speed soon appeared. According to the data of Evergrande, RV Bao Group was reorganized and established by Evergrande and 152 intermediaries in the second half of 2020. At present, there are 30,635 offline stores with an annual transaction scale of 1.2 trillion yuan. In contrast, the corresponding data of shells are 42,000 and 2.1 trillion.

According to the blueprint drawn by Evergrande, the valuation of RV Bao will reach 6 trillion yuan in 2023 and it will be listed in 2024. And RV Bao now values itself at 67.7 billion yuan.

At present, most of the RV treasures are Evergrande’s houses, and it is not known whether it can become an open platform in the future. However, the market space left for RV Bao is still very large.

According to CIC report, the total amount of real estate transactions in China will reach 30.7 trillion yuan in 2024, and the compound growth rate from 2019 to 2024 will reach 6.6%. Although shells are strong, their market share is less than a quarter at present.

This point has also been taken seriously by Internet giants such as Alibaba, JD.COM and ByteDance.

Shortly after the shell went on the market, Ali joined hands with E-House to launch "Tmall Good House" and launched the real estate transaction cooperation mechanism (ETC), providing four trading scenarios: new house, second-hand house, special room and auction room, with more than 60 real estate enterprises such as Vanke, Country Garden and Evergrande as their platforms.

According to the plan, Tmall Haofang will not make money for at least the next three years, and all income will be 100% subsidized by buyers.

Zhou Xin, chairman of Yiju, believes that the traditional brokerage industry is fragmented, and the appearance of shells provides the first choice for the industry, while Tmall Haofang provides another choice for institutions and brokers who are unwilling to be bound by too many rules. "I don’t think there is right or wrong, it’s just a matter of choice."

But then the war started. Last year’s Double Eleven, Tmall Good Rooms and Shells concentrated on the promotion of new houses. From the open battle report, Tmall Haofang entered 236 cities through cooperation with 302 developers, with a GTV of over 93.1 billion yuan. In contrast, Ke Holdings Inc. only claims to cooperate with 90% of the top 100 housing enterprises, with a GTV of less than 36.8 billion yuan.

In addition to Ali, JD.COM is also making efforts. During the Double Eleven last year, it opened more than 800 "Haofang Jingxuan" stores in Guangzhou, Dongguan, Huizhou and Tianjin.

Hu Jinghui, chief economist of Jinghui think tank, believes that compared with the loose defensive alliance form before, all the new entrants have the support of big capital, and with the influx of various forces, one or two forces that can really fight against shells may be formed in the future.

In the process of competition among all parties, scattered small and medium-sized brokerage companies are more likely to become the target of poaching. According to the data of Qianwei.com, 70% of small and micro intermediaries have completed more than 50% of the transaction volume in the second-hand housing market.

Ping An Securities pointed out in its research report that under the demands of the head office to scale up and expand channels, the expansion speed of the heavy asset direct sales model is limited, and the light asset platform joining model has become an important means of scale growth, and the competition for resources of small and medium-sized stores in the region is becoming increasingly fierce, driving the industry concentration to accelerate, showing a situation of strong and strong.

Reporting/feedback

Employment, house purchase, stock trading … Ten predictions for the second half of this year’s economy are closely related to you.

　　Editor of Economic Daily-China Economic Net: In 2020, the second half of China’s economy has begun, and the next performance has attracted much attention. Can the employment target be achieved in the second half of this year? What will be the trend of the property market? Will retaliatory consumption appear? … … For these economic hot issues that the society cares about, the Financial Research Center of Bank of Communications released "Born Inward — — Macroeconomic and financial outlook for the second half of 2020 was analyzed and predicted.

　　Employment: The annual target of 9 million yuan can be achieved.

　　According to the report, with the obvious acceleration of the resumption of work and production and the targeted support of policies, it is still relatively certain to achieve the goal of 9 million new jobs set by the government throughout the year. First, focus on supporting the employment of key groups and ensuring new jobs. The second is to focus on supporting small and micro enterprises to reduce unemployment. The third is to develop emerging industries and promote flexible employment. Fourth, strengthen training, expand the number of recruits, ease employment pressure and improve the quality of the labor force.

　　GDP: The economy can achieve positive growth throughout the year.

　　As for the GDP growth rate, the report predicts that the economic growth rate in the second half of the year will be significantly faster than that in the first half of the year. The development of the global epidemic and the recovery of external demand will have an impact on China’s economic operation. Under the benchmark scenario, the economic growth in the third quarter recovered to about 6%, and the annual economic growth rate was about 2.5%. Under the pessimistic scenario, the global demand has been significantly weakened by the repeated epidemic, and the economic growth rate in the third and fourth quarters is still low, with the annual economic growth of about 1%; Under the optimistic scenario, the global epidemic quickly disappeared, the external demand resumed and the domestic active policies were effective, and the economic growth rate rebounded significantly in the third and fourth quarters, with an annual economic growth of about 3.5%.

　　Consumption: there will be no retaliatory consumption, and a moderate recovery can be expected.

　　Will retaliatory consumption appear in the second half of the year? The report doesn’t think it will appear. First, the epidemic has brought a serious impact on outdoor consumption, second, the epidemic has brought an impact on employment, and third, China’s rescue policy has little support for families and individual residents. As the epidemic subsides and production and life return to normal, the recovery of consumption in the second half of the year can be expected, and the consumption varieties may be divided: the consumption of anti-virus products such as medicine, disinfectant and toiletries increases rapidly; Necessary consumer goods, such as daily necessities and electronic products, which are less affected by the epidemic have recovered quickly; Consumption related to real estate and automobile industry chain has gradually improved; The recovery of service consumption may be slow.

　　Investment: Focus on "New Infrastructure"

　　The report predicts that the annual infrastructure investment will increase by 8%. Fiscal and monetary policies focus on targeted support, and infrastructure investment focuses on "new infrastructure". Traditional infrastructure investment will also accelerate, but the intensity may be limited. The downward trend of market interest rate and the decline of financing cost of housing enterprises may support the gradual acceleration of real estate development investment. As the lack of speculation in housing indicates that the real estate control policy will not be relaxed, it will restrict the growth rate of real estate development investment, which is expected to increase by 5% throughout the year. The investment in high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing has a good growth momentum, but the weakening of external demand has a great impact on export-oriented manufacturing. The investment prospects of traditional manufacturing industries are not good, and the operating pressure of enterprises is increasing and profits are narrowing, which will seriously affect the investment expectations of manufacturing industries. The negative growth trend of manufacturing investment may remain for some time, and it is expected to increase by -4% for the whole year. It is estimated that the annual investment will increase by about 3.1%.

　　Bond market: short-term fluctuations do not affect the medium-term trend.

　　The report pointed out that the fluctuation of short-term bond market is mainly disturbed by factors such as the marginal slowdown of monetary policy easing. From the medium-term logic point of view: the current marginal slowdown of monetary policy operation is not a monetary policy shift, and the recovery of the real economy has just begun and the long-term growth pressure is still great. The withdrawal of policy strength from the emergency mode during the anti-epidemic period is a short-term disturbance. In the second half of the year, under the control of the central bank’s "moderate money+wide credit", the money market interest rate SHIBOR and other probabilities are still "fluctuating" at the bottom. Although the bond market yield is difficult to show a sharp trend, the overall sharp rebound in the second half of the year does not have the driving foundation of liquidity fundamentals.

　　Stock market: maintaining range volatility and grasping structural opportunities

　　The report believes that fundamental recovery, low valuation, sustained net inflow of foreign capital, possible acceleration of credit cycle expansion and a series of reform measures in the equity market are all positive factors in the current domestic equity market. However, considering more uncertainties overseas, the stock market will still maintain a range fluctuation pattern during the year, and the bottom point should not fall below again during the year. However, considering the adaptation to the basic situation, there are some difficulties in continuing to attack, and we should remain cautiously optimistic. From the perspective of investment opportunities, we can still focus on new infrastructure areas such as science and technology supported by policies, and leading enterprises in industries such as essential consumer goods related to domestic demand and medicines related to making up shortcomings. The registration system continues to advance, and it is expected that the market profit will be concentrated in the head enterprises in the future, and the trend of "the strong will be strong" will continue.

　　Exchange rate: Sino-US relations dominate the exchange rate trend, and two-way fluctuations may become the norm.

　　Since 2018, due to political factors such as trade friction, the RMB exchange rate has deviated from fundamental factors. The report predicts that the US dollar may weaken slightly in the second half of the year, while the spread between China and the United States will remain high. Under the background of loose global liquidity and ultra-low interest rates, RMB assets are expected to continue to attract foreign capital inflows, and the RMB exchange rate may rebound slightly to around 7. However, in the second half of the year, the global epidemic situation is still uncertain, the market sentiment is still fragile, and American politicians may still make an issue of China during the election, so the RMB exchange rate fluctuates greatly. It is expected that the RMB exchange rate may fluctuate in the range of [6.9,7.2].

　　Property market: There is great pressure on housing prices in these places.

　　For the property market in the second half of the year, the report predicts that the transaction trend may change in two stages: the first stage is the short-term repair and replenishment of sales volume, and the regulation policy of tightening outside and loosening inside and the liquidity dividend of rising water are two catalysts to promote the release of demand; The second stage is to return to the original downward cycle. If the policy orientation does not change, short-term gap repair will not be enough to constitute a cyclical upswing. The regional performance is even more different: the "resident demand" in first-and second-tier cities is easy to release, and the pressure of rising house prices in low-inventory areas such as Shenzhen and Hangzhou is high; It is difficult to maintain the "demand for migratory birds" in third-and fourth-tier cities, and the old reform effect cannot completely replace the shed reform. Thanks to the friendly monetary environment, the pressure on the capital cost of housing enterprises has obviously eased.

　　Crude oil: oversupply eased, and oil prices may fluctuate upward.

　　In terms of crude oil, the report believes that China leads the recovery of global crude oil demand, and the "OPEC+"production reduction agreement has begun to take effect, which has jointly eased the pressure of oversupply in the market. However, the upward pace of oil prices will slow down after experiencing a significant rebound. First, although the demand for crude oil is improving, it still faces uncertainty. Second, the production reduction action started at the end of 2016 also proves that under the background of the rising of non-OPEC+oil producers such as the United States, multi-party games run through the production reduction agreement, and the "OPEC+"production reduction action alone is not enough to fundamentally change the situation of oversupply. Third, the high inventory of crude oil still needs to be digested. In the second half of the year, the oil price will fluctuate upwards, and the Brent oil price center may be 40-55 USD/barrel.

　　Gold: the allocation value is prominent, and the upward momentum of gold price is sufficient.

　　Affected by the epidemic, the financial market has been in great turmoil this year, while the gold market has a unique scenery. Looking forward to the market outlook, based on the safe-haven function and value-preserving function of gold, the report predicts that the price of gold still has sufficient upward momentum, or mainly fluctuates higher. First of all, the fear of a new round of pneumonia has stimulated investors’ safe-haven demand for gold assets. Secondly, in the global monetary easing policy and low interest rate environment, the expectation of inflation and currency depreciation has increased, triggering the demand for gold preservation. Finally, in the coming period, uncertainties from the United States and the dollar will also support the rise of gold prices.

　　The report was completed by Cai Puhua, Zhou Kunping, Tang Jianwei, Liu Jian, Chen Ji, Liu Xuezhi, Hu Yanan, Xia Dan and Jian Wu from the Financial Research Center of Bank of Communications. (Economic Daily-China Economic Net reporter Ma Changyan)

A number of ministers have repeatedly voiced their voices, looking for a job and buying a car!

　　Beijing, August 11th (Reporter Li Jinlei) When something unusual happens, you should pay attention to the unusual signal behind it.

　　These days, Ning Ji Zhe, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, Liu Kun, Minister of Finance, Zhang Jinan, Minister of Human Resources and Social Security, Zhong Shan, Minister of Commerce, and Yi Gang, Governor of the Central Bank, have appeared in news broadcast one after another, and a series of heavy voices have revealed the future policy direction, which concerns many people’s jobs and wallets.

　　Stabilizing employment: promoting the employment of key groups

　　Employment is the biggest livelihood. Only when the rice bowl is stable can we increase our income and promote consumption. Therefore, the state puts employment in the first place of "six guarantees" and "six guarantees". However, affected by the epidemic, employment started in a downturn this year, but it is gradually stabilizing.

　　Zhang Jinan announced a set of figures: the number of new jobs in cities and towns rose from 390 thousand in February to one million per month in the near future; According to the survey, the overall unemployment rate is about 6%, and it has dropped month by month since the second quarter. In May, the recruitment demand increased by 2% year-on-year, which turned from negative to positive for the first time since February, and continued to pick up in June.

　　However, Zhang Jinan reminded that this year, affected by the epidemic, the market demand of college graduates declined, recruitment was postponed, job hunting was limited, and the level of youth unemployment rose. With college graduates entering the market in July and August, the employment of key groups will face new pressure.

　　How to ensure the employment of key groups?

　　Zhang Jinan said that in the second half of the year, registered unemployed people will be provided with basic public employment services free of charge, and policies such as rent reduction, tax incentives, and business guarantee loans will be actively implemented to help them find jobs and start businesses through multiple channels. For college graduates, we will continue to encourage expanding the scale of enterprise absorption, expanding the scale of grassroots employment, expanding the scale of further studies, and expanding the scale of training and internship. For migrant workers, employment services, vocational training and rights protection will be strengthened, and employment outside the home and in the local area will be promoted. In particular, the employment of poor laborers with established files will be done well.

　　Yi Gang pointed out that in the second half of the year, the monetary policy should be more flexible, moderate and precise, and the policies that have been introduced to stabilize enterprises and ensure employment should be effectively implemented.

　　Data Map: The scale of participating vehicles at Changchun Auto Show in 2020 reached a new high. Photo by Zhang Yao

　　Promote consumption: relax the purchase restriction of new energy vehicles

　　Expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption are essential for stabilizing economic growth.

　　On July 30th, Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party called for "firmly grasping the strategic base point of expanding domestic demand", continuously expanding domestic demand, overcoming the impact of the epidemic, expanding final consumption, and creating conditions for upgrading residents’ consumption.

　　Regarding how to expand consumption, Ning Ji Zhe pointed out that to expand domestic demand, we should give full play to the basic role of consumption in economic growth. In the second half of the year, China will accelerate the high-quality development of new consumption such as smart retail and online education, promote the transformation and upgrading of automobile and household appliances consumption, encourage cities with restricted purchases to appropriately increase the purchase limit of automobiles, relax the purchase restriction of new energy vehicles, and give appropriate subsidies for the purchase of new energy vehicles.

　　Ning Ji Zhe said that the development of consumption gathering areas in counties is the focus of expanding domestic demand this time, and it is also a place with great potential for consumption development. For example, the renovation of pedestrian streets in county towns should be supported by loans, and some corporate bonds can be issued to support this renovation, so that the consumption of China is not only in big cities, but also in medium cities and counties.

　　"Work hard to promote consumption." Zhongshan said that to promote urban consumption, it is necessary to promote the transformation and upgrading of pedestrian streets and develop chain (convenience) stores. It is also necessary to expand rural consumption, promote e-commerce into rural areas, and promote industrial products to the countryside and agricultural products to the city.

　　Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the Economic Policy Research Association of China Policy Science Research Association, told the reporter of Zhongxin.com that it is necessary to create a market environment conducive to promoting consumption, promote fair competition, crack down on counterfeiting, improve product quality, let consumers eat and use with confidence, and vigorously cultivate emerging consumption represented by online consumption, so that consumers can "consume, dare to consume and are willing to consume".

　　Data Map: Visitors watch the 5G indoor router at close range. China News Service reporter Jiang Qiming photo

　　Steady investment: promoting the construction of "two new and one heavy"

　　To expand domestic demand, we must actively expand effective investment.

　　Ning Ji Zhe pointed out that in terms of investment, we should focus on promoting the construction of new infrastructure, new urbanization, transportation and water conservancy and other major projects, increase efforts to make up for shortcomings in public health, emergency materials reserve, transportation and energy, implement urban renewal, and speed up the transformation of old urban communities.

　　Private investment accounts for nearly 60% of the total social investment and is an important force to stabilize investment. Ning Ji Zhe said that in the second half of the year, China will further improve the environment for private investment, increase policy support, and support private capital to participate in the construction of short-board areas such as epidemic response, public health, warehousing and logistics, and emergency reserve. At the same time, it will guide banks to launch credit products suited to the characteristics of private enterprises and increase the scale and proportion of credit loans and medium-and long-term loans.

　　Yi Gang has made it clear that the comprehensive use of various monetary policy tools will guide the growth rate of broad money supply and social financing scale to be significantly higher than last year, and at the same time pay attention to grasping the rhythm and optimizing the structure, so as to promote the reasonable growth of inclusive small and micro enterprise loans and medium-and long-term manufacturing loans.

　　Liu Kun pointed out that in order to cope with the impact of the epidemic, the fiscal policy was "additive", and 1 trillion yuan of special anti-epidemic national debt was issued, focusing on supporting local infrastructure construction and epidemic prevention and control.

　　The picture shows people watching the launch of the Long March 5 rocket at the seaside. Luo Yunfei

　　Steady expectations: China’s economy is expected to achieve positive growth throughout the year.

　　China’s economy rebounded deeply in the first half of the year, and its economy grew by 3.2% in the second quarter, which was obviously better than expected and achieved the first recovery in the world. Looking forward to the whole year, what is the macroeconomic trend of China?

　　Ning Ji Zhe pointed out that the situation of China’s economic recovery is well-founded, conditional and sustainable, while the fundamentals of China’s economic stability and long-term improvement have not changed and are emerging.

　　From the production point of view, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size has been increasing for three consecutive months since April; The service industry production index has achieved positive growth for two consecutive months. From the demand side, fixed asset investment achieved positive growth in the second quarter, and the decline in total retail sales of social consumer goods narrowed for four consecutive months. The gradual recovery of supply and demand cycle can be said to improve the sustainability of economic recovery.

　　Yi Gang said that on the one hand, various industries have recovered rapidly; On the other hand, demand has gradually recovered, investment has rebounded significantly, consumption has continued to recover, and exports have obviously improved. While the economy is recovering, the price level has remained stable.

　　"Overall, the characteristics of China’s great economic potential and sufficient resilience have not changed. China’s economic growth will continue to recover in the second half of the year, and it is expected to achieve positive growth throughout the year." Yi Gang judgment. (End)

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