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I. Market size and growth rate

the year 2017The global prescription drug market size is$774 billion, estimated from 2017 to 2022.The annual growth rate of CAGR is 6.5%By 2022, the prescription drug market will exceed the trillion-dollar level for the first time, reaching$1.06 trillion. CAGR exceeds that in the field of instruments5.1%.

Prescription drug market is divided intoPrescription drugs (except generic drugs and Orphan drugs), generic drugs and orphan drugs.Three market segments. Among them,generic drugsIn 2017-2022, the scale of the overall prescription drug market will be10%-11%The annual growth rate of CAGR is slightly lower than that of the overall prescription drug market.6.0%The market scale will be from 2017.$84 billionGrowing to 2022$112 billion; Annual growth rate of orphan drugs in 2017-2022CAGR was 11.2%, a rare double-digit growth, the market size will be from 2017.$123 billionrise to$209 billion, accounting for the overall prescription drug market size will be from15.9% in 2017rise to19.7% in 2022.

Although the expected market share can be increased, in fact, the proportion will remain basically unchanged in the next five years; The proportion of orphan drugs has steadily increased.

2. What is the impact of the patent cliff?

It is expected to be from 2017 to 2022.$194 billionThe drug market is facingPatent cliff patent cliffThe challenge is mainly due toBiosimilar, a biosimilarIn the previous article, I also shared the market of Biosimilar, the global biosimilar market and competition analysis |Q said. This patent cliff may be fromThe first patent cliff in 2012After the second patent cliff peak.

Of course, there are still some variables in the future who will eat this big cake in the generic drug market. In addition to companies that focus on generic drugs,Big pharmaceutical companiesNow I have also found a way. If my patented drug expires, I can authorize it to be authorized generics, which is exactly the same as the original patented drug, except that the trademark is removed and the price is lower, and the regulatory authorities do not have to work hard to approve it. Regarding the definition of Authorized Generics, FDA gives the following explanation.

The term “authorized generic” drug is most commonly used to describe an　approved brand name drug that is marketed without the brand name on its label. Other than the fact that it does not have the brand name on its label, it is the　exact same drug product as the branded product.An authorized generic may be marketed by the brand name drug company, or another company with the brand company’s permission. In some cases, even though it is the same as the brand name product, a company may choose to sell the authorized generic　at a lower cost　than the brand name drug.

Many big pharmaceutical companies have begun to plan this.Instead of letting others eat the cake, it is better to distribute it yourself or share it with others.; The time and method of specific sales are also controllable; Why not?

III. What are the hot treatment areas?　

fromFrom the perspective of Biotech, a biological medicine, and Conventional medicine, Conventionality.Look, 2017-2022Biological medicineThe proportion of the overall market has steadily increased and tends to be flat, and will be from26% in 2017 increased to 30% in 2022.; At the same time, biopharmaceutical head productsTop 100 productsThe proportion of total biopharmaceuticals is from 2016.49%Increased to 202252%.

fromTreatment areaLooking at it, the following ten areas have the largest market scale.

（1）Oncology of tumorIt is still the largest market segment, with CAGR in 2016-2022.12.7%Will reach in 2022.$192.2 billionSales, accounting for global market share17.5%.

（2）Diabetes Anti-diabeticsIt is the second largest market segment, with CAGR in 2016-2022.4.8%Will reach in 2022.$57.9 billionSales, accounting for global market share5.3%.

（3）Rheumatism Anti-rheumaticsIt is the third largest market segment, with CAGR in 2016-2022.0.6%Will reach in 2022.$55.4 billionSales, accounting for global market share5.0%.

（4）be antiviralAnti-virusIt is the fourth largest market segment, with CAGR in 2016-2022.-2.1%Will reach in 2022.428Billion dollarsSales, accounting for global market share3.9%. fornegative growthSo Gilead is nervous.

（5）Vaccine VaccinesIt is the fifth largest market segment, with CAGR in 2016-2022.4.2%Will reach in 2022.353Billion dollarsSales, accounting for global market share3.2%.

（6）Bronchodilators of respiratory system bronchusIt is the sixth largest market segment, with CAGR in 2016-2022.1.0%Will reach in 2022.301Billion dollarsSales, accounting for global market share2.7%.

（7）Sensory organsIt is the seventh largest market segment, with CAGR in 2016-2022.five.8%Will reach in 2022.283Billion dollarsSales, accounting for global market share2.6%.

（8）Immunosuppressant ImmunosuppresantsIt is the eighth largest market segment, and the CAGR in 2016-2022 is14.6%Will reach in 2022.263Billion dollarsSales, accounting for global market share2.4%. This field is one of all fields.The fastest growth rateYes.

(9) Hypertension Anti-hypertensives is the ninth largest market segment, and the CAGR in 2016-2022 is-0.2%Will reach in 2022.244Billion dollarsSales, accounting for global market share2.2%.

（10）Cardiovascular Anti-coagulantsIt is the tenth largest market segment, and the CAGR in 2016-2022 iseight.6%Will reach in 2022.232Billion dollarsSales, accounting for global market share2.1%.

By 2022,Top Five Top5 Tumor DrugsWill beCelgeneThe company’s immunomodulatorRevlimid、BMScorporatePD1 antibody Opdivo, Merck’sPD1 antibody Keytruda、AbbViecorporateBTK inhibitor Imbruvica、PfizercorporateCDK inhibitor Ibrance. The next five years will bePD1The overbearing world adds up to the tumor market.10%.

4. How much does it cost to develop new drugs?

First of all, the big pharmaceutical companiesAt present, R&D investment has accounted for about 20% of the sales revenue ratio.. Without research and development, there will be no new products, and cruel competition will push you out of the market.

Secondly,On average, each new drug NME(New Molecular Entity) costs $5 billion.. $5 billion is definitely not a small figure, which exceeds the previous cost.

Furthermore, according to the sales in the United States after the approval of the new drug,The annual sales of each NME in the fifth year is about $522 million.. According to the current Hacth-waxman Act, the new drug NME has5 years of data exclusivityandThree years of market exclusivity,　After that, generic drugs went on the market. It is necessary for pharmaceutical companies to expand indications, conduct more research and development, or cooperate in research and development as soon as possible.

5. Who are the top ten pharmaceutical companies?

First place,Novartis NovartisIn 2016-2022, CAGR is3%, sales reached in 2022.49.8 billion dollars, accounting for market share4.7%.

Second place,Pfizer PfizerIn 2016-2022, CAGR is1%, sales reached in 2022.49.7 billion dollars, accounting for market share4.7%.

Third place,Roche RocheIn 2016-2022, CAGR is4%, sales reached in 2022.$49.6 billion, accounting for market share4.7%.

Fourth place,Sanofi sanofiIn 2016-2022, CAGR is3%, sales reached in 2022.$41.7 billion, accounting for market share3.9%.

Fifth place,Johnson&JohnsonIn 2016-2022, CAGR is4%, sales reached in 2022.$40.5 billion, accounting for market share3.8%.

Sixth place,Merck&CoIn 2016-2022, CAGR is1%, sales reached in 2022.$38.5 billion, accounting for market share3.6%.

Seventh place,AbbVie in AbbwayIn 2016-2022, CAGR is5%, sales reached in 2022.$34 billion, accounting for market share3.2%.

Eighth place,GlaxoSmithKlineIn 2016-2022, CAGR is3%, sales reached in 2022.$33.7 billion, accounting for market share3.2%.

Ninth place,AstraZeneca AstraZenecaIn 2016-2022, CAGR is5%, sales reached in 2022.$28.4 billion, accounting for market share2.7%.

Tenth place,Xinji pharmaceutical CelgeneIn 2016-2022, CAGR is15%, sales reached in 2022.$26 billion, accounting for market share2.5%.

It can be seen that the top three are very tight, and the rankings have not changed much. Pfizer has retreated to the second place, Novartis has jumped to the first place, and Roche is still firmly in the third place.

Gilead fell out of the top ten.

Celgene jumped 11 places into the top ten.

This article was originally published on WeChat WeChat official account’s "Investment and Life of the Owner of Q Village".

Miss Etiquette who appeared in the Good Luck Beijing Test Competition

Miss Olympic etiquette with outstanding charm (data picture)

Hard training (source: competitive newspaper)

　　Youth Daily News Get off the Badaling Expressway at Xiaotangshan exit, head east for 3.5 kilometers, and finally find Songlanbao in sha he, Changping District, Beijing. The taxi stopped at the silver-gray gate of Changping Vocational School in Beijing. It happened that the bell rang after class, and dozens of attractive beautiful students filed out. The volunteers of Beijing Olympic Games ceremony-commonly known as "Miss Olympic Etiquette"-were trained here. What kind of hardships are behind the beauty and elegance?

　　This is the campus flower garden.

　　Since June this year, 1,250 girls from Beijing have come to Changping Vocational School to participate in intensive Olympic etiquette training. Their official name is "Beijing Olympic Games ceremony volunteers", and the popular saying is "Miss Etiquette".

　　After 18-day intensive training, these miss etiquette candidates have been participating in the ceremony service of the 2007 "Good Luck Beijing" Olympic Games series since August. After the examination, 380 etiquette volunteers will be selected in mid-December to participate in the ceremony of awarding the Beijing Olympic Games.

　　On December 5th and 6th, the reporter visited Changping Vocational School twice to visit this "beauty concentration camp" far away in the suburbs of Beijing. Teacher Fu from the school office told the reporter that there are many beautiful women in Changping Vocational School, but this time there are more beautiful women who come to participate in the Olympic etiquette training, which are basically the beauty of various schools. Therefore, it has almost become the big garden of Beijing campus flower!

　　Devil training at 5: 00 a.m.

　　The reporter got a "volunteer training schedule", and the training intensity arrangement above simply exceeded the college entrance examination students!

　　At 5 o’clock every morning, the girls get up and tidy up the house; It is morning exercise time from 6: 00 to 7: 10, and the girls practice gymnastics, dance and basic skills with the tutor; After a simple breakfast, class begins at 8: 00, and an hour of basic ballet hand exercises and body training begins; At 9: 30, the etiquette class starts for two and a half hours, practicing etiquette actions such as standing, walking, walking and turning.

　　Take a simple rest at noon, and start practicing classical dance and folk dance at 14: 00 pm to train the coordination and flexibility of the body, with a total time of about 90 minutes; At 15 o’clock, a two-hour etiquette class begins, the content of which is to consolidate what was learned in the morning. Don’t think that you can rest after class. There will be a 90-minute evening class starting at 19: 00, and the content will be a lecture on Olympic knowledge and etiquette.

　　Busy every day until 22 o’clock at night, these candidate hostesses can return to the dormitory to rest. Teacher Yuan Chunyan, who is in charge of the training of volunteers in awarding ceremonies, said: "When it’s time to rest, the girls don’t even have the strength to go to the bathroom to freshen up, so they can fall asleep when they fall on the bed. For them, these efforts and efforts are aimed at being selected into the final’ Miss Etiquette National Team’ and being perfect when serving the Olympic Games. "

　　Practice smiling by biting chopsticks.

　　The hostesses who participated in the training came from various schools in Beijing, and most of their majors were related to the service industry. They had long been comfortable in reception work. Just because of the particularity of the Olympic Games, we have to strive for perfection and grasp every detail.

　　Teacher Yuan Chunyan told the reporter: "The training of ceremony volunteers is basically the same as that of flight attendants, but it is more strict." Teachers should dig every detail. "For example, when awarding prizes, several volunteers turn around at the same time, and their steps should be consistent. For example, when bowing flowers, the forward direction is about the hip joint and the downward direction is 15 to 30 degrees. Because there are many people in a group when presenting flowers, there are often cases of inconsistent time and irregular movements when squatting, so it is required to have a consistent beat in mind. "

　　The simple steps of holding a medal tray are also very particular. Teacher Yuan Chunyan said: "The arm holding the tray is about one punch away from the side waist. When holding the tray, the thumb must be exposed outside the tray. The most difficult thing is to control the pace and connect the awards. After walking a certain distance during the award presentation, the spacing between them should be the same, about thirty or forty centimeters. "

　　Hao Jingyu, a etiquette volunteer, said: "What impressed me the most was practicing standing, walking, walking, turning around and smiling in etiquette training. In order to make our posture more upright, pace more in place, turn more neatly and smile more naturally when awarding prizes, we have to practice each movement hundreds of times. For example, standing posture is not as simple as we thought. Every etiquette volunteer must wear 5 cm high heels, a book on his head, and an ordinary piece of white paper between his legs and knees. One stop is an hour, and neither books nor papers can fall off, or they will have to be redone. When I rest, my legs are particularly painful to bend. "

　　"Another example is practicing smiling. The smile of volunteers is the best business card in Beijing, so it is very important. " Hao jingyu said, "the laughter needed at the award ceremony is very different from our usual laughter. It is not acceptable to open your mouth wide or small, and even the number of exposed teeth is strictly regulated at 6 to 8. The teacher asked each of us to bite a chopstick in our mouth to feel when practicing smiling. It takes dozens of minutes to laugh like this, and even the facial muscles are numb. "

　　After practicing for a long time, the girls’ teeth are sore by chopsticks, and the corners of their mouths are often abraded. Parents can’t help crying when they see the wound, and the girls smile and comfort their parents with a "nothing". Hao Jingyu said, "It’s the same when practicing walking, walking speed, turning around and other decomposition exercises. Everyone’s feet are ground with blisters, large and small, and after the blisters are worn out, they are ground with new blisters. So on and on, our movements are finally uniform."

　　Daily food allowance for 25 yuan

　　Girls don’t get much material gains by participating in Olympic etiquette activities. The only subsidy for three meals a day for the volunteers participating in the training is 25 yuan, which is almost the same as the dietary standard of ordinary people.

　　Girls have more than a dozen kinds of food for breakfast every day, such as steamed buns, eggs, soybean milk, porridge and Chinese buns. Chinese food and dinner are staple foods such as rice, steamed buns and steamed buns, plus reasonable collocation of vegetables, meat and fish. Teacher Yuan Chunyan said that this recipe should not only ensure that the ceremony volunteers absorb enough nutrition, but also prevent them from getting fat due to overnutrition and affecting their body image. During the early training, there were many mosquitoes in hot weather. The school specially installed air conditioning for the student dormitory of the ceremony volunteers, and prepared mosquito-repellent incense tablets and pesticides to prevent scars from mosquito bites.

　　Teacher Cui Weimin, deputy director of aviation service major in Changping Vocational School, told the reporter that the formal training will continue until March 2008. After intense training, it is the wish of volunteers to see their idols with their own eyes. Hao Jingyu said: "My idol is Liu Xiang. When I imagine that I may have the opportunity to serve Liu Xiang, I even have tears in my eyes, and I silently pray’ 2008, come soon’!"

　　Never flinch from suffering.

　　Despite strict training, accidents will inevitably occur in the actual operation process. When participating in the "Good Luck Beijing" archery team competition, a ceremonial volunteer accidentally stepped on the drainage pipe and twisted it. In order not to affect the progress of the award ceremony, she still kept an elegant smile, guided the award officials to walk the whole field, and walked back to the locker room only to find that the heel almost fell off completely.

　　More than 30 students from Changping Vocational School have participated in the etiquette service of the "Good Luck Beijing" series of events. In order to prepare for the "Good Luck Beijing" triathlon, the etiquette team of Changping Vocational School was pulled to the competition site for training. In those days, the temperature in Beijing just plummeted and the cold rain continued, and the players wearing short-sleeved dresses had to keep training in the cold wind and cold rain. It’s really cold, so everyone happily hugs together to keep warm during the interval of training. Despite the suffering, none of the girls flinched in order to have a good performance at the award ceremony.

　　Liu Changwen, a volunteer who awarded the prize for the "Good Luck Beijing" hockey competition, told the reporter: "My tray contains 18 gold medals and a trophy for the hockey competition, which is estimated to weigh at least 10 kilograms. At first, my hands were shaking. I was particularly afraid that shaking my hands too much would make the medal fall, but I finally persisted! " After the awarding ceremony, a member of the champion Australian team went to the rest area of Miss Etiquette and gave her champion flowers to Liu Changwen. "I was very excited at the time and felt that this was the best evaluation for our entire etiquette team!"

　　How is Miss Olympic Etiquette selected?

　　China has a population of 1.3 billion, so it is not difficult to select thousands of beautiful women. However, Miss Olympic Etiquette is called one of the "facades" of an Olympic Games, and it is not sloppy at all. Not all beautiful women meet the standards of Miss Olympic Etiquette.

　　According to Zhao Dongming, director of the Cultural Activities Department of BOCOG, the standard of a hostess for the Beijing Olympic Games is "1.68m to 1.78m in height and 18 to 25 years old". Zhao Dongming said that miss etiquette must first be an Olympic volunteer; Secondly, the figure is better, and there is no strict regulation on the weight, but there are certain guiding standards for the measurements, because it involves the production of award-winning dresses.

　　There will be nearly 100,000 volunteers for the Beijing Olympic Games, but among these 100,000 volunteers, it is difficult for other volunteers to experience what Miss Etiquette has experienced. Since the beginning of June, BOCOG has been selecting etiquette volunteers in many schools in Beijing. On the basis of various hard indicators, each school chose the best among the best, and conducted an all-round personal quality evaluation for each candidate. The selected candidate not only has outstanding appearance, but also has excellent academic performance and certain English conversation ability. The organizers also have strict requirements on the temperament, posture, skin and comprehensive quality of the candidates.

　　During the selection in China Civil Aviation Management Cadre College, the school held a etiquette selection contest, especially in the whole school. More than 400 girls competed for 10 places, and the competition was fierce.

Editor: Zhu Xinrui

　　"Never trust America. In the future, it will try to crush India … …”

　　△ Screenshot of social media of Indian netizens

　　On the recent social media platform, it is almost normal for the Indian people to comment on India-US relations like the above.

　　After taking office in January this year, what has the new American administration done to make this "important partner" so untenable?

　　This starts with the "stuck neck" of the United States in vaccine raw materials … …

　　"Stuck" on the issue of vaccines

　　According to data from the Indian Ministry of Health, the country’s newly confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours as of 8: 00 am on the 26 th have set a new national record for five consecutive days, and once again set a new record of new cases in a single country in the world; At the same time, the number of deaths on that day also reached a new high in India since the outbreak.

　　△ 25th local time, where will you go, outside a hospital in the Indian capital.

　　Previously, in response to the worsening epidemic situation in China, Adal Punavara, CEO of the Indian Serum Research Institute, used social media to "implore" US President Biden to lift the ban on India’s export of vaccine raw materials in order to increase India’s vaccine production.

　　△ Punavara social media screenshot

　　It turns out that in order to ensure that vaccine manufacturers such as Pfizer in the United States can get enough raw materials to achieve all-weather production, Biden invoked the National Defense Production Act at the beginning of his tenure to prohibit the United States from exporting key raw materials for vaccine production. Even when the vaccination rate and reserves of the United States have been ahead of the world, the Biden administration has been slow to "let go".

　　For the United States, the Indian media simply dismissed it as "vaccine mafia behavior."

　　△ India zeenews News Network report screenshot

　　The indifference of the United States has angered the Indian people. According to Indian media reports, the anti-American and anti-Western sentiment of Indian netizens on social media platforms has continued to rise recently.

　　△ "Times of India" report screenshot

　　Some people accuse the United States of ingratitude: "Remember hydroxychloroquine? When Trump raised the demand last year, India immediately lent a helping hand, although the Indian people were not enough. 1.3 billion Indians will remember who stood by when they needed help. "

　　△ Screenshot of social media of Indian netizens

　　Perhaps facing too much pressure, the White House finally said on the 25th that it would provide India with much-needed medical resources. But at this time, India’s vaccine raw materials have been cut off for several months, and the domestic epidemic has deteriorated to an unprecedented level. At present, the Indian side has not responded to this. I wonder to what extent this gesture of "sending an umbrella after snow" by the United States can calm India’s anger.

　　"Stabbing a knife" in regional security

　　Not long ago, another thing the United States did also angered India.

　　Earlier this month, the destroyer USS john paul jones, while crossing the Persian Gulf to the Straits of Malacca, forcibly entered the Laksha Islands in the exclusive economic zone of India for so-called "free navigation".

　　What makes India even more dissatisfied is that the US Navy’s Seventh Fleet also issued a statement publicly declaring that this action has not been approved by India.

　　△ US destroyer john paul jones

　　In this regard, The Times of India wrote in the first sentence of its report: "There are rare differences between India and the United States on the rapidly developing defense relations between the two countries."

　　△ "Times of India" report screenshot

　　In view of the close defense relationship between India and the United States, this incident is obviously extraordinary. Afterwards, the Indian government expressed "concern", which triggered ridicule and dissatisfaction from Indian public opinion, and regarded it as a manifestation of "weakness" towards the United States.

　　Many Indians believe that the United States "can’t believe that they will stab India in the back."

　　△ Screenshot of social media of Indian netizens

　　"Throw a face" in economic and trade cooperation

　　I am afraid that the more lasting pressure from the United States on India is still in the economic and trade field.

　　As early as June 5, 2019, the Trump administration at that time terminated the GSP treatment for India for decades on the grounds that the US trade deficit with India was too large, which brought a new blow to India, where the economic growth rate slowed down significantly and the unemployment rate hit a new high.

　　△ US President Trump (left) and Indian Prime Minister Modi (data map)

　　On the 26th of last month, the Office of the US Trade Representative announced that the trade investigation on India and other six countries related to the digital service tax in Article 301 had entered the next stage, and the possibility of imposing punitive tariffs on these countries was not ruled out. Indian media said that the United States may impose retaliatory tariffs of up to 25% on Indian products.

　　△ "India Tribune" report screenshot

　　In addition, 11 economies, including India, are still on the US exchange rate policy monitoring list.

　　… …

　　The "new hatred and old hatred" of the piles has made Indians feel sad and angry.

　　The Times of India once quoted the questions of netizens in the country: "Restrict the export of vaccine raw materials, label India as a currency manipulator, enter Indian waters without saying hello, and publish a negative report on human rights and minority rights in India … … This is what allies do? ！”

　　In this regard, Wang Shida, deputy director of the South Asia Institute of China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, pointed out that in recent years, the United States has stepped up its efforts to win over India to implement the so-called "Indo-Pacific strategy" and attempted to extend its power to the Indian Ocean region step by step, but in the process it has never regarded India as the only "partner" that the United States relies on in South Asia. In fact, the differences between India and the United States in many fields make it difficult for the two sides to become true allies.

　　Wang Shida:"On the one hand, the United States wants to use India to promote its so-called ‘ Indo-Pacific strategy ’ ; But on the other hand, the starting point of American foreign policy is always to safeguard America’s own interests and global hegemony. How long can the cooperation between the United States and India last? There has been some reflection in India. Therefore, India has distanced itself from the United States to some extent, and at the same time it has also taken quite strong precautions against the United States. "

　　Planning Wang Jian

　　Written by Shan Lijuan

　　Editor Yan Ming Yao Yanxia Wei Yu

　　Review Zheng Lei Wang Jian

　　Producer Guan Juanjuan