I. Market size and growth rate
the year 2017The global prescription drug market size is$774 billion, estimated from 2017 to 2022.The annual growth rate of CAGR is 6.5%By 2022, the prescription drug market will exceed the trillion-dollar level for the first time, reaching$1.06 trillion. CAGR exceeds that in the field of instruments5.1%.
Prescription drug market is divided intoPrescription drugs (except generic drugs and Orphan drugs), generic drugs and orphan drugs.Three market segments. Among them,generic drugsIn 2017-2022, the scale of the overall prescription drug market will be10%-11%The annual growth rate of CAGR is slightly lower than that of the overall prescription drug market.6.0%The market scale will be from 2017.$84 billionGrowing to 2022$112 billion; Annual growth rate of orphan drugs in 2017-2022CAGR was 11.2%, a rare double-digit growth, the market size will be from 2017.$123 billionrise to$209 billion, accounting for the overall prescription drug market size will be from15.9% in 2017rise to19.7% in 2022.
Although the expected market share can be increased, in fact, the proportion will remain basically unchanged in the next five years; The proportion of orphan drugs has steadily increased.
2. What is the impact of the patent cliff?
It is expected to be from 2017 to 2022.$194 billionThe drug market is facingPatent cliff patent cliffThe challenge is mainly due toBiosimilar, a biosimilarIn the previous article, I also shared the market of Biosimilar, the global biosimilar market and competition analysis |Q said. This patent cliff may be fromThe first patent cliff in 2012After the second patent cliff peak.
Of course, there are still some variables in the future who will eat this big cake in the generic drug market. In addition to companies that focus on generic drugs,Big pharmaceutical companiesNow I have also found a way. If my patented drug expires, I can authorize it to be authorized generics, which is exactly the same as the original patented drug, except that the trademark is removed and the price is lower, and the regulatory authorities do not have to work hard to approve it. Regarding the definition of Authorized Generics, FDA gives the following explanation.
The term “authorized generic” drug is most commonly used to describe an approved brand name drug that is marketed without the brand name on its label. Other than the fact that it does not have the brand name on its label, it is the exact same drug product as the branded product.An authorized generic may be marketed by the brand name drug company, or another company with the brand company’s permission. In some cases, even though it is the same as the brand name product, a company may choose to sell the authorized generic at a lower cost than the brand name drug.
Many big pharmaceutical companies have begun to plan this.Instead of letting others eat the cake, it is better to distribute it yourself or share it with others.; The time and method of specific sales are also controllable; Why not?
III. What are the hot treatment areas?
fromFrom the perspective of Biotech, a biological medicine, and Conventional medicine, Conventionality.Look, 2017-2022Biological medicineThe proportion of the overall market has steadily increased and tends to be flat, and will be from26% in 2017 increased to 30% in 2022.; At the same time, biopharmaceutical head productsTop 100 productsThe proportion of total biopharmaceuticals is from 2016.49%Increased to 202252%.
fromTreatment areaLooking at it, the following ten areas have the largest market scale.
(1)Oncology of tumorIt is still the largest market segment, with CAGR in 2016-2022.12.7%Will reach in 2022.$192.2 billionSales, accounting for global market share17.5%.
(2)Diabetes Anti-diabeticsIt is the second largest market segment, with CAGR in 2016-2022.4.8%Will reach in 2022.$57.9 billionSales, accounting for global market share5.3%.
(3)Rheumatism Anti-rheumaticsIt is the third largest market segment, with CAGR in 2016-2022.0.6%Will reach in 2022.$55.4 billionSales, accounting for global market share5.0%.
(4)be antiviralAnti-virusIt is the fourth largest market segment, with CAGR in 2016-2022.-2.1%Will reach in 2022.428Billion dollarsSales, accounting for global market share3.9%. fornegative growthSo Gilead is nervous.
(5)Vaccine VaccinesIt is the fifth largest market segment, with CAGR in 2016-2022.4.2%Will reach in 2022.353Billion dollarsSales, accounting for global market share3.2%.
(6)Bronchodilators of respiratory system bronchusIt is the sixth largest market segment, with CAGR in 2016-2022.1.0%Will reach in 2022.301Billion dollarsSales, accounting for global market share2.7%.
(7)Sensory organsIt is the seventh largest market segment, with CAGR in 2016-2022.five.8%Will reach in 2022.283Billion dollarsSales, accounting for global market share2.6%.
(8)Immunosuppressant ImmunosuppresantsIt is the eighth largest market segment, and the CAGR in 2016-2022 is14.6%Will reach in 2022.263Billion dollarsSales, accounting for global market share2.4%. This field is one of all fields.The fastest growth rateYes.
(9) Hypertension Anti-hypertensives is the ninth largest market segment, and the CAGR in 2016-2022 is-0.2%Will reach in 2022.244Billion dollarsSales, accounting for global market share2.2%.
(10)Cardiovascular Anti-coagulantsIt is the tenth largest market segment, and the CAGR in 2016-2022 iseight.6%Will reach in 2022.232Billion dollarsSales, accounting for global market share2.1%.
By 2022,Top Five Top5 Tumor DrugsWill beCelgeneThe company’s immunomodulatorRevlimid、BMScorporatePD1 antibody Opdivo, Merck’sPD1 antibody Keytruda、AbbViecorporateBTK inhibitor Imbruvica、PfizercorporateCDK inhibitor Ibrance. The next five years will bePD1The overbearing world adds up to the tumor market.10%.
4. How much does it cost to develop new drugs?
First of all, the big pharmaceutical companiesAt present, R&D investment has accounted for about 20% of the sales revenue ratio.. Without research and development, there will be no new products, and cruel competition will push you out of the market.
Secondly,On average, each new drug NME(New Molecular Entity) costs $5 billion.. $5 billion is definitely not a small figure, which exceeds the previous cost.
Furthermore, according to the sales in the United States after the approval of the new drug,The annual sales of each NME in the fifth year is about $522 million.. According to the current Hacth-waxman Act, the new drug NME has5 years of data exclusivityandThree years of market exclusivity, After that, generic drugs went on the market. It is necessary for pharmaceutical companies to expand indications, conduct more research and development, or cooperate in research and development as soon as possible.
5. Who are the top ten pharmaceutical companies?
First place,Novartis NovartisIn 2016-2022, CAGR is3%, sales reached in 2022.49.8 billion dollars, accounting for market share4.7%.
Second place,Pfizer PfizerIn 2016-2022, CAGR is1%, sales reached in 2022.49.7 billion dollars, accounting for market share4.7%.
Third place,Roche RocheIn 2016-2022, CAGR is4%, sales reached in 2022.$49.6 billion, accounting for market share4.7%.
Fourth place,Sanofi sanofiIn 2016-2022, CAGR is3%, sales reached in 2022.$41.7 billion, accounting for market share3.9%.
Fifth place,Johnson&JohnsonIn 2016-2022, CAGR is4%, sales reached in 2022.$40.5 billion, accounting for market share3.8%.
Sixth place,Merck&CoIn 2016-2022, CAGR is1%, sales reached in 2022.$38.5 billion, accounting for market share3.6%.
Seventh place,AbbVie in AbbwayIn 2016-2022, CAGR is5%, sales reached in 2022.$34 billion, accounting for market share3.2%.
Eighth place,GlaxoSmithKlineIn 2016-2022, CAGR is3%, sales reached in 2022.$33.7 billion, accounting for market share3.2%.
Ninth place,AstraZeneca AstraZenecaIn 2016-2022, CAGR is5%, sales reached in 2022.$28.4 billion, accounting for market share2.7%.
Tenth place,Xinji pharmaceutical CelgeneIn 2016-2022, CAGR is15%, sales reached in 2022.$26 billion, accounting for market share2.5%.
It can be seen that the top three are very tight, and the rankings have not changed much. Pfizer has retreated to the second place, Novartis has jumped to the first place, and Roche is still firmly in the third place.
Gilead fell out of the top ten.
Celgene jumped 11 places into the top ten.
This article was originally published on WeChat WeChat official account’s "Investment and Life of the Owner of Q Village".